TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts that the Australian monsoon will continue to strengthen in the coming days, as it has over the past few weeks. The presence of this easterly wind usually signifies the transition from the rainy season to the dry season in most parts of Indonesia.
However, the BMKG has noted differences in rain potential in Indonesia from May 12 to 18, 2026, especially during the upcoming long weekend. It is predicted that the strengthening of the Australian monsoon over the next few days will be followed by considerable weakening.
In a strengthened state, this wind carries drier air masses from Australia. This condition indicates that several regions in Indonesia are transitioning from the rainy season to the dry season. This reduces the potential for cloud formation and rainfall in those areas.
"Nevertheless, despite the strengthening potential, it will be followed by weakening, allowing the moisture in the southern parts of Indonesia to increase again," as stated by the BMKG Public Meteorology Directorate.
Predictions for several other atmospheric phenomena remain the same for the week ahead. The Madden-Julian Oscillation phenomenon is still in phase 3 (Indian Ocean). MJO activities are spatially predicted to cross most parts of Indonesia, except for North Kalimantan, Gorontalo, and North Sulawesi.
Additionally, the eastward-propagating Kelvin Waves are predicted to be active in Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, Java Sea, South Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi, Banda Sea, and Arafura Sea. The Equatorial Rossby Waves, propagating westward, are also predicted to be active in the North Kalimantan region, the southern part of the Makassar Strait, Sulawesi Sea, South Sulawesi, the southern part of Southeast Sulawesi, Flores Sea, and East Nusa Tenggara.
"The presence of such atmospheric disturbances has the potential to increase cloud formation in the related regions," as stated by BMKG in another section. BMKG had also previously stated that significant rainfall may still occur in mid-May.
From May 12-14, several areas are advised to be cautious about an increase in moderate to heavy rainfall. These include Banten, Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, and East Java. Early warnings of the potential for heavy to very heavy rainfall, accompanied by lightning and strong winds, are directed to North Sumatra, West Sumatra, Bangka Belitung Islands, Central Sulawesi, West Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, North Maluku, and Maluku.
The same weather early warnings for the period of May 15-18 are given to the Bangka Belitung Islands, West Java, Central Java, East Java, West Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, and Central Papua.
Read: BMKG Forecast Drizzles in Jakarta as Australian Monsoon Strengthens
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