BRIN: Vortex Seed in Indian Ocean Triggers Extreme Weather, Flooding in Java

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - A researcher from the Climate and Atmosphere Research Center at the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Erma Yulihastin, reported that a developing vortex in the Indian Ocean near the western coast of Sumatra could trigger atmospheric convergence, leading to heavy rainfall. The wind swirl, located near Bengkulu, was detected today, Tuesday, March 4.

"This convergence is forming over western Indonesia, specifically in southern Sumatra and western Java. Rainfall has been occurring daily and is expected to persist throughout the first ten days of March 2025," Erma told Tempo on Tuesday afternoon.

According to Erma, the vortex seed’s development into a full vortex has also led to the formation of a long, multi-cell convective storm system known as a squall line. Radar data indicates that this squall line has been active since early March over southern Sumatra and Lampung.

After forming over Lampung, the squall line evolved into a mesoscale convective rain system over the ocean. This small-scale storm is now moving toward Jakarta. Erma explained that this system’s movement is reinforced by localized northern winds over northern Jakarta and western Java.

While there are no indications of intensified winds from the Karimata Strait associated with a cold surge or CENS, local wind gusts—or background wind—continue to transport convection from the ocean to Java’s northern coast. This condition has triggered early-morning rainfall in northern Jakarta, extending as far as northern Central Java, including Demak, Kudus, and Semarang. Its influence even reaches the northern coast of East Java, including Tuban.

Web-based cyclone monitoring applications developed by BRIN, Sadewa and Kamajaya, have also confirmed rainfall reaching up to 400 millimeters in Puncak, Cisarua District, Bogor Regency, West Java. According to Erma, this rain was not localized but has extended to Jakarta, Bogor, and various areas along Java’s northern coast.

This pattern of increasing rainfall intensity across multiple locations indicates mesoscale weather disturbances, particularly the development and dynamics of the vortex. This surge in rainfall, which can trigger extreme weather, may recur in early April 2025.

"Stakeholders are urged to remain vigilant by mitigating flood-prone river basin areas and implementing immediate drainage engineering in major cities," Erma stated.

Editor's Choice: 5 Facts About Jakarta's Floods: From River Overflows to a Thousand Tons of Trash

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