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February 18, 2025 | 11:41 am
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Asteroid 2024 YR4, estimated to be large enough to destroy a city, has a 2.3 percent chance of colliding with Earth in 2032. However, scientists mention that there is a smaller possibility that this asteroid will collide with the moon, not the Earth.
On February 7, NASA scientists revealed that the likelihood of this asteroid colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032 has increased from 1.2 percent to 2.3 percent. The asteroid is estimated to be about 55 meters wide, or the height of Cinderella's Castle in Walt Disney World, and is moving at a speed of almost 48,000 km/h.
Although this asteroid is too small to cause human extinction, its impact could still destroy a large city and release energy equivalent to about 8 megatons, which is more than 500 times the energy of the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima, Japan.
However, David Rankin, an operations engineer from the Catalina Sky Survey at the University of Arizona, revealed that there is also a 0.3 percent chance of the asteroid colliding with the moon. "There is a possibility that this collision will release some material that could fall to Earth, but I highly doubt that it will pose a significant threat," Rankin told News Scientist, as quoted from Space.com, Tuesday, February 18, 2025.
If this asteroid were to collide with the moon, the impact would likely be clearly visible from Earth, although we would not be directly affected.
According to Rankin, as cited in a Live Science report, a collision with the moon could release more than 340 times the energy of the Hiroshima bomb. "It would likely be very visible from Earth," he said.
However, Gareth Collins, a professor of planetary science at Imperial College London, assures that Earth will remain safe. He explains that the material thrown off by the collision is likely to burn up in Earth's atmosphere before reaching the surface.
Furthermore, international scientists are currently conducting further research using the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). This telescope is expected to provide a more precise picture of the size and trajectory of asteroid 2024 YR4 before the asteroid disappears from Earth's view in the coming years. The JWST will measure the heat emitted by this asteroid, which will provide a clearer picture of its composition and size.
Nevertheless, the likelihood of this asteroid colliding with Earth or the moon remains very small, with current calculations showing a 97.9 percent chance of the asteroid missing. Despite the increased collision probability from 1 percent to 2 percent, Rankin assures that this is not a significant threat to be concerned about. "This asteroid is not something that should make us lose sleep," he said.
Editor's Choice: Asteroid That Doomed the Dinosaurs Originated Beyond Jupiter
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