January 22, 2026 | 06:40 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Erma Yulihastin, a climate and atmosphere researcher from the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), spoke about the strong likelihood that cyclone seed 91S moving eastward toward Sumba Island will develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours.
Based on observations from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the wind speed of the cyclone is around 45 kilometers per hour.
The system is circled red under the JTWC monitoring map, signaling "high potential to form into a tropical cyclone," Erma told Tempo on Thursday, January 22, 2026.
The climatology professor explained that the 91S cyclone seed could trigger extreme weather events, including storm surges in the southern coasts of Bali, Lombok, West Nusa Tenggara, and Sumba.
Storm surges refer to increased sea levels on the shores due to wind propulsion. For this, Erma urges residents to increase vigilance and limit outdoor activities.
"It is better to stay indoors, considering these two factors: there's more than 50 percent chance the cyclone will strengthen, and it may get closer," she said.
The worst-case scenario, Erma went on, would be the cyclone seed getting closer to shores, affecting the weather in the aforementioned three regions.
Erma also mentioned that the chance for extreme weather had been predicted earlier by BRIN's prediction technology. "It has been predicted by KAMAJAYA BRIN since two months ago, which was narrated as Waspada (Beware of) The Next Senyar at that time," she said in a post on X on Thursday morning.
When reporting the potential 'Next Senyar', BRIN stated that there would be a storm landing in NTT on January 1-10, 2026. The prediction, originating from the high-resolution Subseasonal-to-Seasonal system on KAMAJAYA-BRIN, has been developed to support decisions on mitigating extreme weather up to six months ahead.
The BRIN team reminded that cyclone seeds could rapidly develop into tropical storms or cyclones. If heading towards eastern Indonesia, this phenomenon could cause extreme rain, strong winds lasting for hours, high waves, as well as the risk of flash floods and landslides.
The public is advised to regularly monitor daily weather warnings from BMKG, avoid activities in the southern coast of Java, and minimize outdoor activities such as diving, surfing, and camping on the beach. The research agency also suggested that people prepare basic necessities at home, pay attention to travel routes, and be adaptive to weather changes.
Read: BMKG: Extreme Weather Threat Looms Over Southern Indonesia in Late January
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