TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - An animated video circulating on Instagram [archive], Facebook, TikTok, and Threads claims that Indonesia controls global rice prices. The video alleges that Indonesia’s decision to halt rice imports starting in 2025 angered exporters Vietnam and Thailand, causing global rice prices to decline.
The video includes the following narrative:
We were once considered slaves, now we control global prices.
But is it true that Indonesia has become the country controlling global rice prices?
FACT CHECK
Tempo verified the claim by comparing it with credible data and consulting economic experts. The findings show that Indonesia’s rice import suspension policy has not had a significant impact on global rice prices.
According to Reuters, global rice prices dropped after India reopened grain exports, including rice, in April 2025 after restrictions had been in place since 2022. The decline was soon followed by falling rice prices in Thailand and Vietnam.
Data from the US Department of Agriculture shows that Indonesia does not hold a significant position in the global rice trade market. The world’s largest rice producers are India, China, Bangladesh, and Indonesia.
Although Indonesia ranks fourth, its production volume remains far below India and China. In the 2024–2025 harvest season, Indonesia produced 34.1 million tons of rice, compared with India’s 150.2 million tons and China’s 145.3 million tons.
In terms of global suppliers, the international rice market has been dominated by India, Thailand, and Vietnam since 2011. Tempo noted that Indonesia briefly became the world’s largest rice importer in 2023, importing 3.06 million tons, but this position did not continue in the following years.
Adhitya Wardhono, a lecturer and researcher at the Faculty of Economics and Business at the University of Jember (FEB UNEJ), said Indonesia still carried out selective rice imports in 2025 for industrial broken rice, basmati rice, hom mali rice, and other specific needs.
He said the decline in rice prices was driven by increased global supply rather than Indonesia’s domestic policies.
“This means the main factors are broader, namely rising global supply, India reopening exports, or weakening import demand from several countries,” Adhitya told Tempo on June 10, 2026.
He added that the price surge in 2023–2024 was mainly triggered by concerns over the El Niño phenomenon, which threatened harvests, as well as India’s export restrictions.
After India reopened exports, the price of Thai 5% broken rice, which had reached around US$632 per ton in the first quarter of 2024, gradually fell to US$617 per ton in the second quarter of 2024.
CONCLUSION
Tempo’s verification concluded that the claim saying Indonesia controls global rice prices is misleading.
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