September 25, 2025 | 05:55 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Indonesia's rupiah exchange rate weakened to Rp16,758 per U.S. dollar in today's trading on Thursday, September 25, 2025. The rupiah weakened by 74 points compared to the previous day's closing at Rp16,684 per U.S. dollar. According to currency and commodities observer Ibrahim Assuaibi, if the rupiah continues to weaken, the exchange rate could potentially break through Rp17,000 per U.S. dollar in October.
A finance observer from Traze Andalan Futures stated that the strengthening of the U.S. dollar is triggered by increasing geopolitical tensions in Europe. In his speech at the United Nations, U.S. President Donald Trump warned European countries not to continue buying oil from Russia.
At the same time, Ukraine, with the assistance of NATO and the U.S., continues to attack Russia's energy infrastructure. Furthermore, Ukraine wants Russia to return the territories it controls. "The main prerequisite for the ceasefire agreement is the territories controlled by Russia. This is most likely very difficult to do," Ibrahim said in his statement on Thursday, September 25, 2025.
Meanwhile, from the internal side, Ibrahim assessed that the trigger for the weakening of the rupiah is the statement of Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, who refused tax amnesty. According to Ibrahim, the tax amnesty policy is highly desired by the market. "The market responded negatively to Purbaya's statements about rejecting tax amnesty," Ibrahim said.
On the other hand, Bank Indonesia (BI) is currently continuously intervening in the Non-Deliverable Forward (NDF) and Domestic Non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF) markets. Ibrahim mentioned that this intervention is carried out due to significant speculation in the international markets.
Ibrahim also compared these conditions with the era of the previous finance minister, Sri Mulyani Indrawati. Ibrahim argued that, during the previous minister's tenure, the rupiah's value remained relatively stable despite Bank Indonesia's intervention. "This means that speculation in the international markets is so strong that Bank Indonesia's intervention is futile," Ibrahim said.
Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa previously stated that he did not agree to reintroducing tax amnesty. The tax amnesty policy has been implemented twice. The program was initially carried out in 2016-2017. In 2022, the government reinstated tax amnesty through the Voluntary Disclosure Program (PPS), also known as tax amnesty volume II.
According to Purbaya, repeatedly giving tax amnesty poses a risk to taxpayer compliance. "If amnesty is given repeatedly, it signals to taxpayers they can violate the rules because there will be amnesty in the future," he said at the Ministry of Finance office, Friday, September 19, 2025.
The Tax Amnesty Bill has resurfaced on the long list of the National Legislation Program (Prolegnas) for 2025-2029. It should be noted that the Tax Amnesty Bill previously entered the 2025 Priority Prolegnas as proposed by the House of Representatives (DPR) Commission XI. However, during a working committee meeting of the DPR Legislation Body (Baleg) with the government, it was announced that the bill had been removed from the list of priorities and added to the long list.
According to the Chair of the DPR Commission XI, Mukhamad Misbakhun, the Tax Amnesty Bill in the Prolegnas is merely a formal procedure and process. "It is not based on an urgent need to be used as a policy instrument in the near future," Misbakhun told Tempo on Monday, September 22, 2025.
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