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March 15, 2025 | 02:08 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Over the past few days, Greater Jakarta or Jabodetabek and western Java have experienced mostly cloudy weather. Following the severe flooding last week, there were initial concerns that heavy rainfall would continue.
According to Erma Yulihastin, a researcher at the Climate and Atmosphere Research Center, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), the current weather aligns with predictions from BRIN's Kamajaya weather model. This model indicated that extreme rain would likely occur only in the first ten days of March and would return in the first ten days of April.
Regarding the present situation, she explained that all factors that could cause heavy rain have moved away. "Especially those that could trigger extreme weather, namely Kelvin and Rossby waves," she explained in an interview on Friday afternoon, March 14, 2025.
This climatology research expert detailed that the Kelvin-Rossby interaction factors have now left the Greater Jakarta areas, which consist of Jakarta, Bogor, Depok, Tangerang, and Bekasi. Additionally, there are no signs of large cloud clusters in the Indian Ocean that could move towards western Java.
"The southern vortex in the Indian Ocean has also moved away and dissipated after becoming Tropical Storm Ivonne," she added.
Even if heavy rain occurs in Greater Jakarta and western Java in the coming days, Erma noted that it will be localized. Furthermore, more rain clouds are forming over the ocean. "So, if it rains over the sea, the rain on land won't be as intense."
The situation is expected to change from late March to early April. Erma issued an early warning about increased rainfall in the first ten days of April, with a more extreme rise at the end of April or the third ten-day period. At that time, she predicted, "The rainfall could reach 800-900 mm in Jabodetabek."
Rainfall exceeding 100 mm per day is considered heavy rain, and over 150 mm per day is considered extreme rain.
Erma explained that during April, strengthening north winds are expected to continuously form, caused by a vortex in the Indian Ocean southwest of West Java. This effect is reinforced by the convergence of atmospheric waves, namely Kelvin and Rossby.
"These factors are similar to those that caused the repeat of extreme weather conditions at the beginning of last March," Erma said, adding that the combination of atmospheric waves, strengthened by winds from the north and forming locally in northern Jakarta, will trigger extreme weather again, "Especially at the end of April."
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