Heavy Rain Expected Across Indonesia Amid Chinese New Year, Early Ramadan

15 hours ago 7

February 17, 2026 | 02:00 pm

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has issued warnings for heavy rainfall across parts of Indonesia in the coming days, coinciding with the Chinese New Year and the start of Ramadan holidays.

BMKG forecasts that active Asian monsoon winds will continue to supply air masses and transport moisture toward the Indonesian archipelago.

The surge of cold air from Siberia is expected to strengthen rainfall potential, alongside cyclonic circulation observed in the southwestern Indian Ocean, off Lampung and Aceh, west of West Kalimantan, and north of Papua in the North Pacific Ocean.

Meteorologists also point to the influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), combined with Kelvin Waves, Equatorial Rossby Waves, and low-frequency waves, as contributing factors to rain cloud formation across most regions. BMKG notes that weak La Nina conditions persist, further enhancing the likelihood of rainfall.

“With air humidity remaining high, these conditions have the potential to significantly increase rainfall in parts of Indonesia,” the Public Meteorology Directorate of BMKG said in its weather outlook for February 17–23, 2026.

For February 17–19, BMKG advises heightened caution in all provinces of Java, Bali, and Nusa Tenggara, as well as most of Sumatra (except North Sumatra), Central Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, North Maluku, Central Papua, Papua Mountains, and Papua. Heavy to very heavy rain, along with strong winds, is expected in these areas.

For February 20–23, early warnings are in effect for East Java, Bali, and the Papua Mountains, with additional alerts for strong winds in several regions.

BMKG encourages the public to remain vigilant and take necessary precautions during this period of heightened rainfall potential.

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