TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) stated that the likelihood of El Nino triggering extreme drought in Indonesia this year is low. However, it was also mentioned that the dry season this year is expected to last longer with rainfall below the climatological average.
This statement was conveyed by the Head of the Climate and Atmosphere Research Center at BRIN, Albertus Sulaiman, in the El Nino 2026 development report. According to him, there's no need for the public to panic about extreme El Nino this year.
Albertus referred to the analysis results of various global climate models, which indicate that the current conditions are more inclined towards a moderate El Nino with a 27 percent probability. "This is different from the extreme El Nino or Godzilla El Nino that occurred in 1997 and 2015," he said, as quoted on the BRIN website yesterday.
A number of factors are behind this, among them is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is currently in a normal or neutral phase predicted to last until April 2027. The IOD phenomenon is a deviation in sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean that can cause changes in atmospheric movement or air masses.
A positive IOD means that the sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean warm up, while in the eastern-southeastern part, they cool down. This condition results in reduced rainfall in Indonesia.
In addition, according to Albertus, Indonesia and the Pacific region have just experienced a strong El Nino in the 2023-2024 period. "So physically, the ocean does not yet have enough energy to form a super extreme El Nino in close succession," he said.
Extreme El Nino Expected in Late 2027
Nevertheless, Albertus added, BRIN has found signals of an increased risk of extreme El Nino in the late 2027 to mid-2028 period.
Through a stochastic analysis approach using the Fokker-Planck Equation, he explained that the likelihood of the emergence of Godzilla El Nino during that period will increase to nearly 40 percent.
"This finding serves as an early warning for the government to start preparing medium-term mitigation strategies," he said.
Meanwhile, BRIN predicts this year's dry season to peak in August. Several regions across Java, especially West Java such as Bekasi, Cirebon, Kuningan, and the city of Bandung, are potentially facing very dry conditions. "Overall, the likelihood of a longer dry season could reach around 81 percent," he said.
To cope with the impact of a prolonged dry season, BRIN has developed various research-based mitigation technologies. One of them is a real-time peatland monitoring system through the Ina-Carbon platform, which can monitor groundwater levels, soil moisture, rainfall, and air quality. This system can detect critical peatland conditions one to two weeks before a wildfire breaks out.
Additionally, Albertus said, BRIN is also developing firefighting drone technology that can reach remote and inaccessible locations. This technology is designed to support efforts to combat wildfires, which generally increase during prolonged dry seasons due to El Nino.
In the agricultural sector, BRIN is preparing various adaptation technologies to reduce the risk of crop failure. These technologies include water-saving irrigation systems, more efficient water resource management, and the use of suboptimal land such as swampy areas, which can become an alternative food production when conventional farmland experiences water shortages.
Albertus emphasized that the success in dealing with El Nino is not only determined by the extent of climate anomalies that occur, but also by the readiness of early-applied technology and adaptation strategies. "With proper mitigation and adaptation, the impact of El Nino can be minimized as much as possible," said Albertus.
Read: How Indonesia Anticipates El Nino and Recurring Forest and Land Fires
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