TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Minister of Finance Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa stated that his ministry has calculated various scenarios should global oil prices reach US$92 per barrel. He noted that if the world oil price remains at the US$92 level throughout the year, the State Budget deficit could exceed 3 percent.
"We have exercised [a scenario] where the price is US$92 for a year on average; since it affects the annual State Budget, the deficit would be 3.6 percent," Purbaya said at the Ministry of Finance office in Jakarta on Friday, March 6, 2026.
However, he clarified that such a widening of the deficit would only occur if the government fails to take anticipatory measures. Purbaya mentioned that the government can still take steps to implement savings by cutting inefficient expenditure items.
Purbaya noted that, under normal conditions, the world oil price hovers around US$60 per barrel. The Ministry also calculated a second scenario in which the world oil price rises to US$72 per barrel; according to Purbaya, fiscal conditions remain safe under those circumstances. Meanwhile, the worst-case scenario involves the world oil price reaching US$92.
The State Treasurer mentioned that Indonesia has previously navigated situations where the world oil price exceeded US$150 per barrel. According to Purbaya, while the economy slowed down during that period, it did not lead to a crisis.
Purbaya stated that if the world oil price reaches a level that is too high and burdens the budget, the government will consider raising the price of subsidized fuel. However, he noted that the government has not yet discussed an adjustment to subsidized fuel prices. "Not yet. Because as I said, our budget is still safe," Purbaya remarked.
World oil prices have surged sharply over the past week due to increasing tensions in the Middle East, which have disrupted global energy supply routes. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, resulting from the conflict between Iran and the U.S.-Israel bloc, is the primary trigger for the price surge.
Based on Trading Economics data, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price rose to US$84 per barrel on Friday, March 6, 2026. Weekly, the U.S. benchmark crude oil price surged by approximately 21 percent, marking its largest increase since 2020. Meanwhile, Brent crude oil also saw an increase, with the global benchmark price rising by 4.93 percent, or about US$4.01, to US$85.41 per barrel.
Nandito Putra contributed to the report
Read: Strait of Hormuz Oil Trade by Country: 5 Nations Most at Risk of Disruption
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