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April 11, 2025 | 08:33 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The rupiah gained 28 points against the US dollar in Friday’s trade, April 11, closing at Rp16,795 per US dollar. This marks the second straight day of gains for the Indonesian currency, following a 35-point rise on Thursday.
“As for next Monday’s trade, the rupiah is expected to remain volatile but is likely to close stronger, within the range of Rp16,740 to Rp16,800,” currency analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi said in a written statement on Friday, April 11.
Ibrahim attributed the rupiah’s extended appreciation to Washington's decision to delay its reciprocal tariff policy. The postponement, he said, created a moment for Indonesia and other countries to resume negotiations on proposed import tariff hikes.
However, he cautioned that the policy still poses a serious challenge for Indonesia. The new measures could jeopardize trade stability not only for Indonesia but also for ASEAN, which has long upheld the principles of free and open trade.
ASEAN is the fifth-largest export market for US agricultural products, with total bilateral goods trade expected to reach US$306 billion in 2024. "Indonesia alone accounts for US$14.34 billion of the US trade deficit," Ibrahim noted.
Despite this, Indonesia continues to cultivate strategic partnerships with a number of countries. Ibrahim said six trade agreements are currently under negotiation, including the Indonesia-Canada CEPA, Indonesia-Peru CEPA, Indonesia-EU CEPA, Iran PTA, the amended protocol of the Indonesia-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (IJEPA), and the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) with the US.
He expressed hope that these partnerships would help expand Indonesia's export market through the finalization of several free trade agreements. "This is part of Indonesia's long-term strategy to broaden market access, strengthen trade resilience, and create new jobs," he added.
Dollar Hit by US-China Tariff Spat, Consumer Inflation
The greenback, meanwhile, came under pressure due to mounting concerns over a US recession—particularly as Washington and Beijing continue to impose steep tariffs on each other. On Thursday, President Donald Trump announced a previously unprecedented 145 percent tariff on Chinese imports, while China's retaliatory tariffs of 84 percent on US goods also took effect.
According to Ibrahim, traders remain uneasy about the ripple effects of this tariff exchange, especially since the US still relies on imports of several key goods that cannot be easily sourced from elsewhere. Although Trump has delayed plans for reciprocal tariffs on other countries for 90 days, "The trade war with China still carries the potential for devastating consequences for American importers and exporters," he said.
The US dollar was also weakened by consumer inflation data for March, which came in lower than expected. The softer data fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve may be forced to cut interest rates sooner than anticipated, especially under growing economic pressure from the trade war.
"However, the Fed has adopted an extremely cautious stance in response to Trump's policies. The ongoing decline in US Treasury prices amid lingering doubts about the US economy under Trump has only added to the dollar's downward pressure," Ibrahim said.
China, meanwhile, is widely expected to allow its currency to depreciate further in the coming weeks. A weaker yuan would make Chinese exports more competitive. This move is expected to help offset some of the headwinds caused by its intensifying trade war with the United States.
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