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March 10, 2025 | 01:23 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Mass layoffs and staff changes at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the United States (U.S.) potentially could decrease the reliability of weather forecasts.
The American Meteorological Society and several researchers are concerned about its impact on public safety.
“The consequences to the American people will be large and wide-ranging, including increased vulnerability to hazardous weather,” said the American Meteorological Society in a statement quoted from a report by New Scientist, Monday, March 10, 2025.
U.S. Senator Maria Cantwell mentioned that more than 880 NOAA employees were laid off under the administration of President Donald Trump.
This layoff includes researchers who are developing next-generation weather models, as well as more than 200 National Weather Service staff. Additionally, 500 other employees were offered early retirement, exacerbating the already understaffed condition of NOAA.
A NOAA spokesperson declined to comment on these layoffs and emphasized that the agency will continue to provide weather information, forecasts and warnings pursuant to our public safety mission.
However, former NOAA employees and external researchers stated that these cutbacks could have a negative impact on the accuracy of weather forecasts. The following are four impacts of the mass layoffs at NOAA on the reliability of weather forecasts:
1. Delayed Tornado Warnings
The National Weather Service oversees 122 weather forecast offices across the U.S., but at least 16 in tornado-prone regions are currently understaffed. More than a dozen meteorologists in these areas have resigned.
“It is more likely there will be some mistakes,” said William Gallus of Iowa State University. Last year, a tornado forced the evacuation of Iowa’s weather forecast office.
The neighboring office that took over issued a warning just five minutes before the tornado hit—far below the minimum 15-minute target.
2. Challenges in Predicting Rapid Storm Intensification
NOAA once had a dedicated research team working to improve storm forecasts, particularly in predicting rapid intensification. However, staff cuts have disrupted this effort.
“It’s going to be slower going to make the improvements that we have counted on to make hurricane forecasts better over the last 30 years," said Andy Hazelton, a former NOAA Environmental Modeling Center employee who was recently laid off.
Layoffs also affected the ‘Hurricane Hunters’ team, including two flight directors responsible for collecting real-time storm data.
3. Risk of Less Accurate Weather Data
Weather forecasts depend on data from satellites, radar, and ocean buoys. However, some local weather offices have stopped launching weather balloons due to staffing shortages.
“All of those observing networks are maintained and run by people,” says Emily Becker at the University of Miami in Florida. “And we have already lost many people from those teams. It’s going to be an aggregate effect.”
4. Setbacks in Advancing Weather Forecasting
NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center, responsible for weather data validation and forecast model development, has laid off eight employees—about a quarter of its staff.
Additionally, ten employees were let go from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, which is working on next-generation weather and climate models.
“If we’re losing a large amount of researchers working on them, you’re basically saying my forecasts are never going to get better,” said Gallus.
Experts warn that without sufficient staffing, weather forecast accuracy will continue to decline, increasing risks for communities facing extreme weather.
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