TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's murder, US President Donald Trump has openly expressed his thoughts about the kind of leadership he would want to see in Iran.
However, the Iranian regime is unlikely to be toppled even by a large-scale military attack, a classified report by the National Intelligence Council concluded. The report, completed a week before the Iran-Israel war broke out, highlights several factors contributing to the regime's resilience.
First, the assessment found that the regime has established clear protocols to ensure its survival even if high-ranking leaders are killed. Second, intelligence officials assess that it is unlikely that fragmented opposition groups will be able to seize control.
The idea of a mass uprising is also unthinkable. Active bombing and rifts within the government and the Iranian military corps, or IRGC, appear unlikely, according to current and former US officials. However, the report does not consider other possible scenarios, such as sending US troops into Iran or arming the Kurds to provoke an uprising.
"It sounds like a deeply informed assessment of the Iranian system and the institutions and processes that have been established for many years," said Suzanne Maloney, an Iran scholar and vice president at the Brookings Institution, as reported by NDTV.
The report raises questions about US President Donald Trump's plan to "clean out" Iran's leadership structure. The White House has outlined the goals of Operation Epic Fury as destroying Iran's ballistic missile and missile production capacity, destroying its navy, ending its ability to arm proxies, and preventing them from acquiring nuclear weapons in the future.
"The Iranian regime is being absolutely crushed," said White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly.
Trump previously said he must be involved in selecting Iran's supreme leader to replace Ayatollah Ali Khomeini. In an interview with Axios, Trump said that Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old son of the late Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei, succeeding his father as the new head of state of the Islamic Republic was "unacceptable" and that he wanted someone who would "bring harmony and peace to Iran."
"They're wasting their time. Khamenei's son has no influence. I have to be involved in the appointment," Trump told Axios, as quoted by Al Jazeera.
Trump added that he would prefer a leader similar to Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez, who replaced Nicolas Maduro after he was kidnapped by US forces in January. Although previously serving as Maduro's vice president, Rodriguez has allowed Washington to sell Venezuelan oil and cut off oil supplies to Cuba under threat of further US attacks.
"Venezuela was so incredible because we did the attack, and we kept government totally intact. And we have Delcy, who’s been very good. We have the whole chain of command," he told reporters earlier this week.
Trump also said that he would have to personally approve Iran's next supreme leader, similar to his involvement in appointing Delcy Rodriguez as Venezuela's interim president after the US-backed overthrow of Nicolas Maduro.
Read: 'Shield of the Americas': Trump Launches Regional Coalition
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