TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The European Union (EU), key powers of the bloc, and the United Kingdom (UK) have called for international law to be followed and condemned Iran's regime.
However, so far they have failed to articulate a common approach and appeared divided, sidelined, and ineffective as a major crisis unfolds in the Middle East with possible ramifications for Europe and the world.
Yet in the wake of Iran's drone attack on Cyprus — an EU territory — and the regime's ongoing strikes on assets in the Gulf countries, can Europe remain on the fence?
Experts say European powers are adopting a defensive strategy, rather than getting involved militarily.
Cornelius Adebahr, Associate Fellow at the German Council of Foreign Relations (DGAP), said that EU member states and the UK are united in taking defensive measures if a European country is attacked, and in helping the Gulf nations with whatever they can. However, he added, they disagree on Trump's war goals and the extent to which they should support U.S. action against Iran.
"There will be no unified position on the war," Adebahr told DW. "On the other hand, none of the member states will enter the war directly; they will not play an active role alongside the US or Israel."
Europe under U.S. pressure to back the war
On Wednesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt warned that U.S. President Donald Trump expects "all of our European allies" to back the U.S. and Israel's war against Iran.
She said the goal was to "crush the rogue Iranian regime that not only threatens America, but also threatens our European allies."
This came after Trump appeared flustered by the delay in European backing for the war.
"This is not Winston Churchill that we're dealing with," Trump said of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer after he said the UK did not believe in "regime change from the skies." Starmer has expressed doubts about the legality of the war, although he has allowed the U.S. to use two British bases.
The UK is not part of the EU but is a key member of the European Three (E3), alongside France and Germany, who are co-signatories of the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal and architects of the EU's joint Iran policy.
In comparison, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz received praise when he visited the White House on Wednesday. Trump described Merz as an excellent leader, as Merz sided with Trump on getting rid of a "terrible" regime and allowed U.S. forces to use the Ramstein Air Base in Germany.
France, meanwhile, has authorized a temporary presence of American planes to land at certain French bases. However, the approval came only after France secured guarantees that the aircraft would not be used to carry out attacks against Iran and would operate solely in "support of the defense of our partners in the region," according to a French official quoted by Reuters.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said that Rome had not yet received any request from the U.S. to use its bases. However, Italy has said that it may provide air defence systems to Gulf states.
Antonio Giustozzi, from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank in London, told DW that allowing the limited use of bases was "a compromise under U.S. pressure to do something."
How does Iran pose a threat to the EU and the UK?
The Iranian drone attack on a British Royal Air Force base in Cyprus has spooked Europeans who rushed support to the country, with Italy, Greece, the Netherlands, and France sending naval vessels to Cyprus.
"Iran is well aware that this is an attack on an EU state. But that seems to be the point. Tehran appears intent on not only expanding the war into Persian Gulf states but also into Europe," said Trita Parsi, co-founder and executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
He referred to an attack on a French base in the UAE and said that, according to Iran, "for the war to be able to end, Europe too has to pay a cost, the reasoning appears to be."
Meanwhile, NATO chief Mark Rutte has warned that Tehran poses a threat not just to Israel but also to Europe.
He described Iran as "an exporter of chaos" responsible for "terrorist plots and assassination attempts, including against people living on European soil."
There are additional concerns, including a steep hike in energy prices and potential migration from Iran via Turkey to Europe. The EU's top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, said while there was no migration pressure yet, the EU must prepare if the war drags on.
Some experts believe Europe may face a bigger threat if it chooses to directly engage Iran.
"If Europeans get involved, then there may be a threat. That is a British and French concern," RUSI's Giustozzi said.
'This is not our war'
Adebahr of the DGAP said the bloc lacks coherence with countries pursuing their national interests and prioritizing domestic public sentiment.
Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has vehemently opposed the war and refused to grant the U.S. any access to its bases to attack Iran. Trump has since threatened to cut off trade ties with Spain.
Some hail Spain's position as brave, but Adebahr said Spain is in a minority in its total opposition to the war. He said the position is an easy one to take for the Spanish PM, who leads a Socialist party critical of Israel's wars, and where only around 15 percent of the Spanish public views Trump favorably.
Germany's policy appears to be at the other end of the spectrum.
"Sitting in the Oval Office, the German Chancellor appeared to be only looking after German interests. He seems to be focused on how Germany can get along with the United States," said Adebahr.
Experts said that most countries in Europe are concentrating on Ukraine and the economic impact of the rift in transatlantic ties.
"There's a feeling of 'this is not our war now, we have Ukraine to worry about,'" Adebahr added.
Against that backdrop, Kallas, the EU's foreign affairs chief, said the war in Iran would hurt Ukraine as military equipment needed in the war with Russia moves to the Middle East, such as air defence systems.
On top of that, she warned that as oil prices rise and the Gulf countries under attack slow down the flow of oil, Russia will find more buyers for its crude. That money would fill Russia's war chest to keep up its attacks on Ukraine and keep Europe on edge.
Read: EU Vows 'Strong and Swift' Response to Trump's Spain Threats
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