JAKARTA – Indonesia’s proposal to mediate tensions involving Iran, the United States, and Israel has drawn criticism from analysts and diplomats, who question whether Indonesia has the diplomatic leverage to act as a credible intermediary.
Tia Mariatul Kibtiah, an international relations lecturer at Bina Nusantara University, said doubts about the plan stem largely from Indonesia’s limited influence over the parties involved in the conflict.
According to Tia, public skepticism has grown partly because President Prabowo Subianto recently joined the advisory board of the so-called Board of Peace, an initiative linked to US President Donald Trump.
She argued that the body is widely seen as dominated by Washington, which could undermine Indonesia’s credibility as a neutral mediator.
“Can Indonesia realistically persuade or advise Trump to stop the conflict?” Tia said during a virtual discussion hosted by the Institute for Strategic Transformation (Forstra) on March 7. “That is why the international public questions the idea.”
Why Indonesia’s mediation plan is being questioned
Tia outlined several factors that could weaken Indonesia’s mediation role:u7
1. Perceived alignment with the United States
Tia said Iran may view Indonesia’s involvement in the Board of Peace as a sign that Jakarta is leaning toward Washington. Such perceptions could make Tehran reluctant to accept Indonesia as a neutral intermediary.
The issue has also raised concerns about whether Indonesia’s participation in the initiative aligns with its long-standing foreign policy principle of being “free and active,” which emphasizes independence from major power blocs.
“Perhaps the president sees this as part of supporting Palestine,” Tia said. “But on the other hand, it may hurt relations with countries that strongly support Palestine.”
2. Declining trust from Iran
Tia also pointed to signs of skepticism from Tehran. Mohammad Boroujerdi, Iran’s ambassador to Indonesia, has expressed appreciation for Prabowo’s intention to travel to Tehran to help de-escalate tensions. However, he made clear that Iran currently sees little value in negotiating with the Trump administration.
“We believe that negotiations and discussions with the US government will not be useful at this moment,” Boroujerdi said at his residence in Menteng, Jakarta, on March 2. He argued that Washington has repeatedly failed to honor previous agreements.
Without trust from both sides, Tia said, mediation efforts would face significant obstacles. “Indonesia may have good bilateral relations with both Iran and the United States, but the question is whether both sides are willing to listen,” she said.
3. Practical and political obstacles
Similar concerns were raised by former Indonesian deputy foreign minister Dino Patti Djalal, who described Prabowo’s mediation idea as unrealistic.
The proposal emerged shortly after Israel and the United States launched strikes on Tehran on Feb. 28, escalating tensions in the region.
Dino listed several challenges. First, the United States rarely accepts third-party mediation while conducting military operations. He argued that Trump is unlikely to welcome outside intervention if his administration is pursuing regime change in Iran.
Second, Dino noted that diplomatic engagement between Jakarta and Tehran has been limited in recent months. Over the past 15 months, Prabowo has neither visited Iran nor met Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
Third, even if Prabowo were willing to travel to Tehran, Dino said it is unlikely that Trump or US Secretary of State Marco Rubio would visit the Iranian capital for talks.
Finally, mediation would likely require Prabowo to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose government is a key party in the conflict. Dino said such a meeting would be politically, diplomatically, and logistically difficult.
Taken together, analysts say these factors explain why Indonesia’s mediation proposal has drawn skepticism, despite Jakarta’s long-standing reputation as an advocate of dialogue and peaceful conflict resolution.
Adinda Jasmine and Ervana Trikarinaputri contributed to this article.
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