Andy Nicol Exclusive: Why Gregor Townsend was right to drop Duhan, who our most important player is (and it's not Finn Russell) and the reason I'm tipping Scotland to beat the All Blacks for the first time ever!

Former Scotland captain Andy Nicol answers some of the big questions ahead of Saturday's clash at Murrayfield, when the home side will attempt to beat the mighty All Blacks for the first time ever...

What do you make of Gregor Townsend’s decision to drop Duhan van der Merwe? Is that the right call? What qualities does Kyle Steyn have that warrant getting the nod over Van der Merwe?

I do think this is the right call. Duhan is an incredible player, he can cut defences to shreds and score tries from his own half.

One area that he is not as good at is either receiving or chasing a high ball and this part of the game has become huge with the change in the laws on blocking.

Now that it is a fair contest, the ability of a winger to win that aerial battle is huge and Kyle Stein is much better in this area than Duhan.

Throw in Steyn’s defence and his work-rate and I can see why Gregor has made this call. It is a brave call but I think it is the right one.

Van der Merwe is the better winger but Steyn is the better all-round rugby player and that is why he has got the nod.

Zander Fagerson is obviously a huge loss to Scotland. Is there a chance the All Blacks could target D’Arcy Rae in the scrum?

Zander is Scotland’s most important player, even more important than Finn Russell and here is why. The drop off in quality is greater at tight head than it is for the stand-off position.

Tom Jordan is a top quality player who could do a great job at stand-off if required.

Zander not only gives you the ballast at scrum time, he carries the ball so effectively, he defends well and he can pretty much last the full 80 minutes if required.

There will be huge pressure on D’Arcy Rae in this game as he is up against a huge man in Ethan de Groot. New Zealand will go hard at Scotland at scrum time so, the best way to avoid scrums, is to be accurate in all aspects of the game.

What do you make of the rest of the team selection? There’s a six-two split on the bench, Gregor Brown being picked ahead of Jamie Ritchie, no Max Williamson, Tom Jordan only on the bench… what are your thoughts on it all?

Gregor has gone for bulk in the pack with the selection of Grant Gilchrist and Gregor Brown with Matt Fagerson moving to 7. This will be one of the bulkiest back five in the forwards Scotland has ever played so we can say for sure that we are going to be direct and very physical. I like this.

This is the next stage in Scotland’s development as in the very big games, like Ireland, France and South Africa, we have struggled to compete physically.

For this reason, I like the 6-2 split and the ability of Jamie Dobie to cover the wing as well as scrum half and Tom Jordan to cover every other position, allows this to be done with some of the inherent risk being mitigated.

I like the selection of Rory Hutchinson at 13. Gregor might have been tempted to play Jordan at 12 and Sione Tuipulotu at 13, maybe even Kyle Steyn at 13 but both would have been playing out of their best position.

Sione is a brilliant 12 linking so well with Finn and Hutchinson is a proper 13 similar to Huw Jones. Apart from Zander Fagerson and Huw Jones, this is the best team for this game against the All Blacks.

What do you make of New Zealand at the moment? They looked a bit laboured against Ireland in Chicago last weekend, before finally pulling clear in the final 20 minutes. Not quite the force of old?

You write off New Zealand at your peril but the data is there to show that they have had a few issues such as losing to Argentina and being humped by 40 points by the Springboks at home.

The data also shows that they also beat South Africa, Argentina, Australia and Ireland which is not too bad. They still have world class players in Will Jordan, Beauden Barrett and Ardie Savea as well as Damien McKenzie coming off the bench. They showed in the last 20 minutes against Ireland last week that, when they are on their game, they are top quality.

Put yourself in Townsend’s shoes. What does the gameplan need to be in order for Scotland to finally make history and beat the All Blacks for the first ever time?

Scotland have picked a team, especially the pack, to play a direct and physical game. Finn will kick a lot for territory and rely on the kick-chase to get the ball back.

We have the players in the backline to come alive when they get front foot ball and create space for the outside runners like Darcy Graham and Blair Kinghorn.

We don’t want a lot of scrums so there must be accuracy in all aspects of the game and the set-piece must be solid.

If we manage to match New Zealand physically for the full 80 minutes then I think we have the players in the backs to give Scotland the best chance ever of beating the All Blacks.

I am going for 26-24 for Scotland!