TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts a delay in the onset of the 2025 dry season in about 29 percent of the seasonal zones in Indonesia. The affected areas include Lampung, most parts of Java Island, Bali, as well as West Nusa Tenggara and East Nusa Tenggara.
BMKG Head Dwikorita Karnawati said that only 30 seasonal zones in Indonesia have entered the dry season as of late June 2025, far below normal conditions at 64 percent.
"It seems that the dry season is truly being delayed," she said in a virtual extreme weather and climate development press conference held on Monday, July 7, 2025.
At present, the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomena are in a neutral phase and are expected to persist until the second semester of 2025. ENSO is linked to sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, while IOD is related to sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean.
The monthly rainfall forecast also signals continued anomalies that have occurred since May 2025. Above-normal rainfall conditions are likely to persist in most parts of Indonesia until October 2025.
One of the causes for this phenomenon is the weakening of the Australian monsoon, which should have brought dry air, but instead has kept the sea surface temperatures in southern Indonesia warm. This has contributed to the increased rainfall in various regions.
BMKG also noted the presence of Kelvin waves that are actively passing through the northern coastal areas of Java and the Java Sea. This phenomenon occurs simultaneously with the slowing and bending of winds in the western and southern parts of Java, triggering the accumulation of air masses.
"Strong local atmospheric instability also accelerates the growth of rain clouds," said Dwikorita.
BMKG issued an early warning on June 28 and July 3, 2025. The weather agency at that time detected a trend of increased atmospheric dynamics that drove the formation of rain clouds. "In line with the climate prediction earlier, which forecast a wet dry season," she said.
Regions under the Alert category include most of Java Island, especially Greater Jakarta, as well as South Sulawesi, West Nusa Tenggara, East Kalimantan, Maluku, and Papua. The early warning was confirmed by heavy downpours in the aforementioned regions over the past few days.
On July 5, 2025, rainfall intensity of more than 100 millimeters (mm) per day was recorded in Bogor, Lombok, and several areas in South Sulawesi, such as Banteng, Kumba Island, and Sinjai. "Meaning the condition occurs not only in Java, but also in various regions in Indonesia," said Dwikorita.
On July 6, 2025, torrential downpours again hit Jakarta and the surrounding areas, causing Tangerang and East Jakarta to face floods.
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