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December 26, 2024 | 10:33 am
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - South Sumatra, West Java, Yogyakarta, and East Java are areas that received weather warnings from BMKG today, Thursday, December 26, 2024. The four were asked to be vigilant based on weather forecasts made by BMKG for December 25-27.
During that period, BMKG estimates that disturbances from the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) phenomenon are active in the easternmost parts of Indonesia. BMKG mentioned the Seram Sea, Arafura Sea, West Papua, Central Papua, Papua Mountains, and South Papua, which can potentially cause increased rain cloud growth in these areas.
The combination of equatorial waves is observed to be active in the Indian Ocean west of Bengkulu to the south of Bali, South Sumatra, Bengkulu, Lampung, Java Island, Bali, NTB, Java Sea, Central Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, Sulawesi Sea, Maluku Sea, North Maluku, and the Philippine Sea.
"Potentially increasing convective activity and the formation of cyclonic circulation patterns in the region," read the BMKG statement.
Meanwhile, the intensity of Tropical Cyclone PABUK is expected to decrease and become a Tropical Depression in the waters east-southeast of Vietnam. However, cyclone seed 98S will still exist in the Indian Ocean southwest of Sumatra.
Similar information was conveyed by a climatology researcher at the BRIN Climate and Atmospheric Research Center, Erma Yulihastin. She is based on a seasonal prediction platform based on surface sensors, radar, and satellites and an atmospheric prediction system based on atmospheric models and high-performance computing systems.
Erma stated that the cyclone seeds in the north are getting away from Indonesian territory and dissipating. Meanwhile, 98S in the south is growing bigger and closer so it is predicted to have the potential to cause extreme weather until the end of the year.
One form of influence from the 98S cyclone seed is heavy to extreme rain (100-200 mm/day) that has persisted in the past week in Surabaya, East Java. "The rain triggered widespread flooding surrounding the city," he said.
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