BMKG Warns of Hydrometeorological Disasters Due to La Nina Until April 2025

November 22, 2024 | 08:04 pm

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency, or BMKG, reminds the public to be cautious of the rainy season that comes together with the weak La Nina. This results in a potential increase in rainfall of 20-40 percent.

This phenomenon will occur from November or the end of 2024 until at least March or April 2025. La Nina is a global climate anomaly caused by cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

"We urge people to prepare themselves as this phenomenon can significantly affect weather conditions. Especially for people living in hilly areas, mountain slopes, highlands, and the river banks," BMKG chief Dwikorita Karnawati said in a written statement on Friday, November 22, 2024.

She explained that the La Nina phenomenon has the potential to cause various hydrometeorological disasters such as floods, flash floods, landslides, strong winds, and tornadoes. This includes the possible occurrence of flash floods containing volcanic materials such as sand, ash, rocks, wood, or trees mixed with rainwater, especially for active or recently erupted volcanoes.

According to Dwikorita, the main factors affecting the weather and climate in Indonesia in 2025 are deviations in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, and Indonesian waters. The temperature deviations in these areas are closely related to the weak La Nina phenomenon, which can lead to increased rainfall in Indonesia. In addition, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomenon also affects rainfall distribution in the Indonesian region.

Based on atmospheric and ocean dynamic analysis, BMKG predicts that most areas of Indonesia in 2025 will receive annual rainfall in the normal category, ranging from 1,000 to 5,000 millimeters per year. 67 percent of Indonesia is predicted to receive rainfall of more than 2,500 mm per year (high category), including most of Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, western Riau, Jambi, Bengkulu, South Sumatra, Bangka Belitung, northern Lampung, most of Kalimantan, central and southern Sulawesi, and most of Papua.

Meanwhile, 15 percent of the areas are predicted to experience above-normal rainfall, including small parts of Sumatra, East Kalimantan, Central Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi, East Nusa Tenggara, the Maluku Islands, and central Papua. On the other hand, 1 percent of Indonesia is predicted to experience below-normal rainfall, such as western South Sumatra, East Nusa Tenggara, and North Maluku.

Dwikorita added that despite the potential for hydro-meteorological disasters, the weak La Nina phenomenon can be used for the benefit of the community. The abundant rainfall due to La Nina can be optimally used to support food, water, and energy security. In the agricultural sector, farmers will have the opportunity to accelerate planting and expand rice areas in irrigated, rainfed, and dryland fields.

With the right mitigation measures, high rainfall due to La Nina can also increase the capacity of water reservoirs in dams to maximize the operation of hydropower plants and ensure electricity supply, said Dwikorita. People can harvest rainwater or practice rainwater harvesting and use it in the dry season to prevent drought.

"Therefore, it is important to maintain the quality of infrastructure such as dams and reservoirs so that they can be used throughout the year. In addition, drainage optimization and water storage need to be prepared for the next dry season," she remarked.

Editor's Choice: BMKG Warns of Increased Hydrometeorological Disasters in 2025, La Nina Among Contributing Factors

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