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January 14, 2025 | 06:52 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Health expert Professor Tjandra Yoga Aditama addressed reports suggesting that Human Metapneumovirus (HMPV) could become the next pandemic after COVID-19. He gave four reasons why this is unlikely.
“HMPV is unlikely to become a pandemic, but the world will face another pandemic at some point. We just don’t know when or what disease will cause it,” he said in Jakarta on Tuesday, January 14.
The professor from the Faculty of Medicine at the University of Indonesia outlined four reasons why HMPV will not escalate into a pandemic.
- Long Presence of the Virus: HMPV has been around since 2001, and antibodies to the virus were found even before that time.
- Mild Nature of the Disease: Unlike severe COVID-19, HMPV cases are typically mild and tend to resolve on their own.
- Seasonal Incidence: The incidence of HMPV increased in China during the same months in 2019-2020. This is typical in countries with four seasons, where winter's peak can lead to a rise in respiratory infections.
- Similar Symptoms to Other Infections: Respiratory infections caused by various viruses and bacteria share similar symptoms—such as cough, fever, and shortness of breath—which makes it difficult to predict if these will become as severe as COVID-19.
Although HMPV is unlikely to cause a pandemic, its rising cases still require attention. The WHO reported an increase in respiratory infections in the northern hemisphere in January 2025.
Professor Tjandra also noted that the World Health Organization (WHO) has identified several diseases with pandemic potential, none of which include HMPV. These include zoonotic diseases (transmitted from animals to humans), various strains of influenza (due to their ability to mutate), and what is known as Disease X, which refers to an unknown pathogen (virus, bacteria, fungus) that could cause a future outbreak.
"The second is influenza of various types because the influenza virus can mutate over time, and the third is called Disease X," explained
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