December 24, 2025 | 05:48 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has warned that the potential for significant tropical cyclones affecting the country in 2026 remains.
BMKG Deputy for Meteorology Guswanto said tropical cyclone activity in 2026 is expected to follow two main seasonal patterns based on hemispheric conditions.
In the Southern Hemisphere, the potential for cyclone formation typically occurs from January to April, while in the Northern Hemisphere it generally emerges between June and December.
“Based on these patterns, the possibility of tropical cyclones affecting Indonesia in 2026 remains,” Guswanto said during the online Climate Outlook 2026 event on Tuesday, December 23, 2025.
However, he said BMKG is unable to predict the exact number of cyclones that may develop. “We can observe the potential, but we cannot specify the numbers, whether there will be two or three,” he said.
Despite the uncertainty, Guswanto said the likelihood of more than one cyclone event remains. He pointed to past experiences, including Tropical Cyclone Seroja, which affected parts of Indonesia in April in previous years.
According to Guswanto, the impact of tropical cyclones depends largely on their intensity and proximity to Indonesian territory. He cited the recent formation of Tropical Cyclone Grant as an example.
“Tropical Cyclone Grant originated from a low-pressure system known as 93S. However, it is located around 1,000 kilometers southwest of the Sunda Strait, so its main impact is increased wave heights in the Indian Ocean,” he said.
Climate and Cyclone Forecasts Differ
Guswanto also highlighted the key differences between climate forecasting and tropical cyclone prediction. Climate forecasts are conducted over longer time frames, while tropical cyclones are short-lived phenomena that can typically be predicted only within three days to one week.
“Although their duration is brief, cyclone development can be detected early, starting from a low-pressure area, evolving into a tropical disturbance, and eventually forming a tropical cyclone,” said Guswanto, who also serves as BMKG’s secretary general.
He added that tropical cyclones generally last less than 10 days, making them unsuitable for seasonal or annual forecasting. As a result, he said, cyclone activity cannot be predicted on a long-term scale in the same way as broader climate trends.
Read: Tropical Cyclone Grant Impacts Western Indonesia
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