Rupiah Strengthens on Optimism Over Easing US-China Trade Tensions

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October 16, 2025 | 11:22 am

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The rupiah opened higher on Thursday in Jakarta, gaining 3 points, or 0.02 percent, to Rp16,573 per US dollar from the previous Rp16,576 per US dollar.

Rully Nova, an analyst at Woori Bank, attributed the strengthening to easing concerns over the trade war between the United States and China.

“The rupiah is expected to trade within the range of Rp 16,520–16,620 today, supported by the global trend of a weakening dollar index as tensions between the US and China have eased. Statements from officials on both sides have calmed market concerns,” Rully told Antara in Jakarta on Thursday, October 16, 2025.

Meanwhile, United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the planned 100 percent tariffs on Chinese goods will be postponed until next year.

These tariffs, initially threatened by President Donald Trump, were linked to restrictions on essential software exports. The tariffs were slated to take effect on November 1, 2025, or earlier depending on China’s next actions.

Tensions between the two countries resurfaced after China announced on October 9, 2025, restrictions on rare earth exports, including tighter control over processing and manufacturing technologies.

The policy also bans foreign cooperation without government approval.

According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, these measures aim to protect national security and interests, including export controls on mining technology, smelting, separation, magnetic material production, and recycling of secondary resources.

Chinese Ambassador to the United States, Xie Feng, emphasized that a trade or tariff war benefits no one.

He urged both nations to resolve disputes through dialogue based on mutual respect and equal consultation, avoiding actions that could escalate economic and trade tensions.

Domestically, Rully noted that the rupiah could also be influenced by upcoming domestic data, including the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Q3 2025 and Bank Indonesia’s business activity survey.

“The PMI for the third quarter of 2025 is expected to be slightly lower than the previous period but remains in expansive territory,” Rully added.

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