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December 25, 2024 | 05:52 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The fall of President Bashar Al Assad's government in Syria is said to have an impact on countries in the world, one of which is Indonesia. Bashar was overthrown by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham or HTS group led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani on Sunday, December 8.
Terrorism observer and Lecturer in the Anthropology Study Program, Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, Malikussaleh University, Al Chaidar, said the fall of Bashar's regime in Syria will have implications for the mobilization of radical groups in Indonesia to Syria.
"Jihadist or radical groups in Indonesia will move because of strong cooperation with HTS," said Al Chaidar when contacted by Tempo, Wednesday, December 25, 2024.
Even so, said Chaidar, although they will move, radical groups in Indonesia will not move massively. This is because currently radical groups in the country are in a "prone" condition.
According to Chaidar, this "prone" condition is carried out as a hidden strategy so that its movement is not detected by the government and the mobilization efforts to Syria can proceed according to plan. "This strategy has been agreed upon with HTS since 2022, so that there is no euphoria shown by this group when they find out that HTS has succeeded in overthrowing the Bashar regime in Syria," he said.
In this mobilization, Chaidar explained, the main goal of the radical group to Syria is not to hunt down Bashar loyalists. However, to fight ISIS, which is currently in a worse condition.
"So this group will be implicated in going to Syria. However, it will not move quickly, it will probably move in the next five or ten years," said Chaidar.
Contacted separately, the Director of The Community of Ideological Islamic Analyst or CIIA, Harist Abu Ulya, said that the fall of the Bashad government would not have major implications for the movement of radical groups in the country.
According to Harist, the situation in Syria today is different from what happened in the period 2013-2014 or when ISIS emerged in Syria. "Maybe only 1-2 will be affected or want to leave, the majority will not because their interests are different," he said.
Harist said that radical or jihadist groups in Indonesia tend to have differences with the HTS group led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani who has an interest in seizing the Syrian government from Bashar Al Assad. He also said that Abu Mohammed al-Jolani's group also has no affiliation with the radical group Al-Qaeda which has the goal of global jihad.
"So those who have been considered pro the global jihad agenda are very unlikely to leave for Syria because their goals are different," said Harist.
After his leadership was overthrown, Bashar Al Assad and his family reportedly visited Moscow, Russia to obtain asylum from the Kremlin to avoid being pursued by the HTS group.
The Head of the National Counterterrorism Agency (BNPT), Commissioner General Eddy Purwanto, said that BNPT would continue to monitor to prevent the mobilization of radical groups to Syria. "We continue to monitor through social media and intelligence for this prevention effort," he said.
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