7 hours ago
12
You only need to look at last year's Melbourne Cup, when a 100/1 shot got up to win, to realise it's crazy to make any forecast with certainty.
With so much doubt this year about the weather, and how wet the track will be, many big-time punters held off making an investment until the last minute.
If you're among those yet to make up your mind, here's a last-minute guide.
Jamie Melham looks to be feeling the pressure of riding race favourite Half Yours in the Melbourne Cup
1. AL RIFFA: Trainer: Joseph O'Brien (Ire). Jockey: Mark Zahra, 59 kgs. Barrier 19
Probably the best horse in the race pound-for-pound, but the last time a horse carried this weight or more to Melbourne Cup victory, The Beatles were topping the charts. Drawn a tough barrier too. Prepared to risk him if he stays below $10.
2. BUCKAROO: Trainer: Chris Waller. Jockey: Craig Williams, 57kgs. Barrier 12
Just nosed out by the great Via Sistina in the Cox Plate. Forget his flop in this race last year when he was ridden poorly. Trainer knows how to turn to a 2km horse into a two-mile winner, did it with Verry Elleegant in 2021. If its not too much of a staying test, has the class edge on his rivals.
3. ARAPAHO: Trainer: Bjorn Baker. Jockey: Rachel King, 56.5kgs. Barrier 15
Tough but one-paced stayer. Really wanted the rains to come as he's thrives on the boggy tracks. Hard to make a case on form, but very similar profile to last year's shock winner Knight's Choice.
4. VAUBAN: Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott. Jockey: Blake Shinn, 56.5kgs. Barrier 2
Was fancied when he disappointed in the 2023 and 2024 Cups. Now locally based, his form this spring has fluctuated. Drawn to get a comfortable rails run, and has an ace jockey. Inconsistency makes it hard to be confident about this guy, but at his best, he's good enough to win.
Buckaroo (outside) missed out by a whisker in the Cox Plate. If he can run out the two miles in the Cup, he'll be hard to beat.
5. CHEVALIER ROSE: Trainer: Hisashi Shimizu (Jap). Jockey: Damian Lane, 55.5kgs. Barrier 5
Thrives at this distance, but has very ordinary lead-up form and untested on rain-affected turf. Same ownership group has led Japanese raiders to win big Cups here in past decade, and has an accomplished Melbourne jockey, but if he wins this, form means nothing.
6. PRESAGE NOCTURNE: Trainer: Alessandro Botti (Ita). Jockey: Stephane Pasquier, 55.5kgs. Barrier 9
Seemed a left-field choice to be invited to the Cup, but justified it with a highly impressive run in the Caulfield Cup, and that has seen his odds slashed. Impressive European form, likes soft tracks, should be running on in the home straight.
7. MIDDLE EARTH: Trainer: Ciaron Maher. Jockey: Ethan Brown, 54.5. Barrier 13
Been touch disappointing since arriving in Australia but had his best run last start. Have they unlocked his best by fitting blinkers or was that just an ordinary field at Moonee Valley? Jockey-trainer combination has an excellent strike rate.
8. MEYDAAN: Trainer: Simon&Ed Crisford (UK). Jockey: James McDonald, 54kgs. Barrier 22
Really impressive in the Caulfield Cup when he was wide throughout but still ran home strongly. Copped a bad barrier here, but does have arguably world's top jockey in JMac to overcome that.
Presage Nocturne will have the backing of those who like the greys, and on his Caulfield Cup form, he's a top chance.
9. ABSURDE: Trainer: Willie Mullins (Ire). Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy, 53.5kgs. Barrier 4
Irish visitor having his third attempt at the big one, and did finish top 10 in both previous goes. Ran pretty well in the Caulfield Cup, jockey has won the Cup three times before, drawn nicely, but not sure he has the finishing kick.
10. FLATTEN THE CURVE: Trainer: Henk Grewe (Ger). Jockey: Thore Hammer Hansen, 53.5kgs. Barrier 17
Can't knock his European and US form, just keeps winning. Real stayer, likes soft tracks. Lack of local lead-up run a query. Jockey's name is a headline writer's dream.
11. LAND LEGEND: Trainer: Chris Waller. Jockey: Joao Moreira, 53.5kgs. Barrier 16
Had a good 2024 spring but form has deserted him this year. Trainer and jockey know all about winning big races, but needs a massive turnaround.
12. SMOKIN ROMANS: Trainer: Ciaron Maher. Jockey: Ben Melham, 53.5kgs. Barrier 11
The old boy at nine years old could well be leading the field into the home straight. Not going as well as when he was Cup favourite years ago, but if he gets no pressure up front, could be in this for a long way.
Fresh off winning the Derby on Saturday, trainer Ciaron Maher has three runners in the Cup, all at backable odds.
13. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD: Trainer: Kris Lees. Jockey: Tim Clark, 53kgs. Barrier 24
Will carry the famous Lloyd Williams silks that have won this race many times, but outside barrier probably nixed any slight chance he had.
14. HALF YOURS: Trainer: Tony & Calvin McEvoy. Jockey: Jamie Melham, 53kgs. Barrier 8
The only Australian-bred horse in the race was installed as favourite for this after a big finish to win the Caulfield Cup. Cannot fault his form, and is still down in the weights. Some query about getting the two miles, but deserves favouritism.
15. MORE FELONS: Trainer: Chris Waller. Jockey: Tommy Berry, 53kgs. Barrier 23
Sydney staying form has been very good, but that rarely measures up for the Cup. From wide barrier, likely to be tucked into the back of the field, and will face a big task to run them all down, but not the worst.
16. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR: Trainer: Brian Ellison (UK). Jockey: Harry Coffey, 53kgs. Barrier 6
Been overlooked by many, but had a storming finish to win last start and had excuses in this race last year. If the rain dodges Flemington and the track is not too soft, his chances increase.
Australian racing's 'first lady' Gai Waterhouse has Vauban in the Cup. Can she get the most out of the frustrating galloper after two previous Cup failures?
17. FURTHUR: Trainer: Andrew Balding (UK). Jockey: Michael Dee, 52kgs. Barrier 7
Northern hemisphere three-year-old's have an extremely good record in this race, so he fits the profile of a Cup winner. Drawn well. If he gets beyond $20, worth a flutter.
18. PARCHMENT PARTY: Trainer: William Mott (US). Jockey: John Velasquez, 52kgs. Barrier 3.
American visitor has undergone two quarantine spells just to get here, so they must fancy his chances. Australian grass form versus American dirt is very hard to line up. Be a leap of faith to back him.
19. ATHABASCAN: Trainer: John O'Shea & Tom Charlton. Jockey: Declan Bates, 51.5kgs. Barrier 1
Ran pretty well behind Onesmoothoperator last start, and drawn the inside barrier, so can make some case for him, but probably only for a small spec bet.
20. GOODIE TWO SHOES: Trainer: Joseph O'Brien (Ire). Jockey: Wayne Lordan, 51.5kgs. Barrier 20
Former Irish hurdler has thrived on the flat. Owned by mega punter JP McManus, and has a top trainer. She might have to press forward from a bad gate. Another that might be worth a small investment.
Onesmoothoperator stormed to victory in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. He's gone below the radar in Cup tips, but is doing everything right.
21. RIVER OF STARS: Trainer: Chris Waller. Jockey: Beau Mertens, 51.5kgs. Barrier 14
Impressive run in the Caulfield Cup has seen his odds tumble. Genuine lightweight chance. Ticks boxes on form and distance. Canny trainer has always had this mare set for the Cup, and she's peaked at the right time.
22. ROYAL SUPREMACY: Trainer: Ciaron Maher. Jockey: Robbie Dolan, 51kgs. Barrier 21
Has the services of the singing jockey who won this race last year. Comes through a long winter campaign and has won at Group One level in Sydney. Certainly not the roughest.
23. TORRANZINO: Trainer: Paul Preusker. Jockey: Celine Gaudray, 51kgs. Barrier 18
Geelong Cup winner which has been good form for this in recent times. Doesn't have the class of some of his rivals, but a genuine stayer who should be running on.
24. VALIANT KING: Trainer: Chris Waller. Jockey: Jye McNeil, 51kgs. Barrier 10
Plenty tipping he's the best lightweight chance. Was a moderately performed horse that has been transformed since they put the blinkers on. If he can retain that form he'll be right up there. Watch for him flashing home late.
My selections.
1. Half Yours
2. Buckaroo
3. Presage Nocturne
Caulfield Cup winner, and (almost) Cox Plate winner are the most reliable form lines, so Half Yours and Buckaroo are the best chances. However I'd be wary putting a win bet on anything less than $10, given how even the field is.
Where to for value? For an affordable trifecta or First Four, throw in the two main chances along with Presage Nocturne, and the roughies Vauban, Smokin Romans, and Onesmoothoperator.
