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TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency, or BMKG, warns of extreme rainfall during the Christmas and New Year holidays as influenced by the incoming cold surge from the Siberian highlands.
"When the [cold surge] lands in western Indonesia, namely West Java, Lampung, Banten, and Jakarta, the worst-case scenario is extreme downpours,” said BMKG Head Dwikorita Karnawati during a meeting with Commission V in Jakarta last Wednesday, December 4, 2024.
Cold surges may cause hydrometeorological disasters, like the floods in 2020. At the time, torrential downpour occurs during New Year’s Eve in Greater Jakarta, resulting in nine casualties in Jakarta, Bogor, and Depok.
BMKG Head Dwikorita said the cold surge—which the weather agency detected the previous week—could trigger flooding in several regions, such as West Java, Lampung, Banten, and Jakarta.
The impact of a cold surge, such as increased rainfall and wind speed, will hit the archipelago from December 20 to 29.
"The [cold surge] has begun to move towards Indonesia in December and is expected to land here on December 20 to December 29,” she said, as quoted from Antara.
It is known that a cold surge is a weather phenomenon that occurs when atmospheric pressure rises higher compared to anticyclone movements or basins around it.
"The best-case scenario occurred two years ago, where docked ships rocked due to increased wind speed at Merak crossing,” she said.
To anticipate this worst impact, Dwikorita said her team continues to monitor the development of the cold surge.
She also requested cross-ministerial cooperation, such as the Ministry of Transportation, to anticipate the worst impact during the upcoming Christmas and New Year holidays.
A 20% Increase in Rainfall
BMKG previously warned of extreme weather, in the form of a 20 percent increase in rainfall, to hit several regions during the year-end holidays.
"Extreme weather is predicted to potentially occur until March-April 2025, influenced by a weak La Nina phenomenon that can increase rainfall by 20 percent," said Dwikorita Karnawati in her statement through the BMKG website in Jakarta on Sunday, December 8, 2024.
The weather agency also forecast the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Siberian cold surge to be active during the Christmas and New Year holiday periods.
Dwikorita stated that based on a survey conducted by the Ministry of Transportation, it is predicted that there will be 110.67 million people traveling during the year-end holiday season.
"The majority of travelers use private vehicles such as cars and motorcycles, making them highly vulnerable to facing extreme weather along their journey," she said.
BMKG continues to closely monitor this condition and provides up-to-date information to support anticipatory measures and reduce field risks.
She stated that early weather warnings will be issued weekly and repeated three days before the weather event, even up to three hours before the extreme weather event.
The BMKG mobile application also offers a Digital Weather for Traffic (DWT) feature. This service can be used by travelers to check weather information during their travel.
"Users can access early warning information, the weather on land route, travel route, airport, port, and crossing, as well as information on flights and [high] waves,” she said.
Weather Modification
BMKG also mentioned that weather modification operations should be carried out to reduce the potential for heavy rain that could trigger disasters, such as floods, landslides, strong winds, and ground cracking in West Java.
Dwikorita explained that weather modification operations involve spreading sodium chloride (NaCl) or salt to potential clouds in southern West Java regions, such as Sukabumi Regency, Cianjur, Garut, Ciamis, Tasikmalaya, and Pangandaran, to southern Banten.
A total of three tons of salt were successfully seeded into the air by joint personnel using a weather modification aircraft to reduce rain intensity, which could trigger hydrometeorological disasters in West Java.
BNPB Head of Data, Information, and Disaster Communication Center Abdul Muhari, in a statement in Jakarta on Thursday, December 12, stated salt seeding was carried out in three Cessna Caravan 208B aircraft flights on Wednesday.
The target seeding area is potential rain clouds in the southwest to northwest of West Java, located at an altitude of 10,000-11,000 feet, or over three kilometers.
The weather modification operation team from BNPB, the Indonesian Air Force, and BMKG remain on standby at Halim Perdanakusuma Airbase to prepare subsequent seedings to several potential rain cloud zones based on weather satellite observations.
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