February 12, 2026 | 08:37 am
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The International NGO Forum on Indonesian Development (INFID) assesses that Indonesia's economy, which is expected to grow by 5.11 percent annually by 2025, faces structural vulnerabilities. In its analysis, INFID stated that Indonesia's economic growth remains overly dependent on domestic demand.
According to data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the largest contributors to economic growth are household consumption (2.62 percent) and Gross Fixed Capital Formation (PMTB) or investment (1.58 percent). "This fact shows that Indonesia's growth engine still relies heavily on public purchasing power and fiscal stimulus," said INFID Deputy Director Bona Tua in a press release on Wednesday, February 11, 2026.
Furthermore, Bona said, BPS data shows that the strengthening consumption in the fourth quarter of 2025 was heavily influenced by temporary factors—such as the Christmas and New Year holidays, various national events, transportation discounts, and a surge in cash social assistance spending, which grew 66.88 percent annually. According to him, this data raises questions about the sustainability of growth if this short-term support is reduced or discontinued.
INFID also believes that this economic growth has not been able to attract workers out of the informal sector. BPS recorded the open unemployment rate (TPT) in November 2025 at 4.74 percent, a 0.11 percentage point decrease compared to August 2025.
However, As many as 57.7 percent of the total workforce is still trapped in the informal sector. Furthermore, 32.06 percent of the working population is still categorized as part-time workers. "This means that one in three Indonesian workers is not working full-time," said Bona.
Furthermore, INFID highlighted data on the number of poor people in September 2025, which decreased by 0.49 million people to 23.36 million compared to March 2025. Bona said this achievement needs to be read in conjunction with the fact that the national poverty line rose 5.3 percent during the same period. He also noted that the poverty reduction phenomenon is heavily influenced by government assistance.
Therefore, INFID stated that Indonesia's main challenge is no longer simply maintaining growth. "Rather, it is ensuring that the quality of growth is capable of creating decent jobs, reducing inequality, and reducing poverty sustainably," said Bona.
The 2025 economic growth figure of 5.11 percent is lower than the target set in the 2025 State Budget (APBN), which was set at 5.2 percent. The Statistics Indonesia (BPS) also announced Indonesia's economy grew 5.39 percent in the fourth quarter of last year.
"Cumulatively, Indonesia's economy grew 5.11 percent throughout 2025," said BPS Head Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti during a hybrid press conference held by BPS on Thursday, February 5, 2026. Amalia also stated that economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 was the fourth highest quarterly growth since the Covid-19 pandemic. Throughout 2025, the Indonesian economy grew 4.87 percent in the first quarter, 5.12 percent in the second quarter, and 5.04 percent in the third quarter.
Ilona Estherina contributed for this article.
Read: Vice Finance Minister: Indonesia's Q1 2026 Growth to Surpass 5.39%
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