January 28, 2026 | 08:07 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - As the U.S. floats plans to attack Iran, Bachtiar Nasir, the chair of the Middle East Alumni Association (JATTI), warns that it could trigger a global crisis. According to him, an escalation of conflict in the Persian Gulf will shake global energy and economic systems.
"This is not just about the conflict between America and Iran. It's about the global economic sustainability and the lives of billions of people," Bachtiar told Tempo on Wednesday, January 28, 2026.
Bachtiar believes the increasingly intense statements from U.S. officials, military maneuvers, and diplomatic pressures on Iran indicate a growing risk that a full-blown war could break out. And if that does happen, the world will not remain neutral.
One of the most vulnerable points is the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic route through which about a fifth of the world's oil trade and a significant portion of global natural gas travel. This region is a major energy supply for Europe, East Asia, and South Asia.
However, according to Bachtiar, the biggest threat is not the closure of the Strait of Hormuz but the fragility of the energy infrastructure in the Gulf region, citing the 2019 attack on the Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities in Saudi Arabia as an example.
"Without a large-scale war, without invasion, just with precision attacks, around 5.7 million barrels of oil per day disappeared from the global market. That's almost six percent of the world's supply," he said.
The incident proves how vulnerable the modern energy system really is, and no sophisticated and cutting-edge defense could guarantee full protection of vital infrastructure. At that time, the world opted for restraint not because it was not angry, but because it feared a broader escalation.
He believes that if Iran is attacked, the impact will be immensely felt in Europe's post-crisis energy industry, East Asia's supply chain, and the skyrocketing food, electricity, and transport prices across developing nations.
"Oil prices could soar to levels never imagined. Not just because of reduced supply, but because of the collapse of market confidence, insurance, and global logistics," Bachtiar said.
At that point, Bachtiar is sure that a global recession would be nearly unavoidable. He also underscores Iran's position at the center of one of the most sensitive nodes in the world economic system.
Even without nuclear weapons, disruption to the flow of energy in the Gulf is enough to shake the global order, including the U.S. economy.
"An attack on Iran would not be a regular military call. It's a gamble on global stability," he said, emphasizing the importance of global common sense and diplomacy.
After all, major wars in history, he adds, occurred not out of urgent needs but out of misread long-term impacts.
"In the context of Iran, that mistake could lead to energy crises, mass starvation, and the collapse of the fragile global economic system," he said.
According to the alumnus of the Islamic University of Madinah, the world does not need a new war in the Middle East. What is needed is serious diplomacy, restraint, and political courage to step back to prevent a shared disaster.
"The question is no longer whether America is able to attack Iran, but whether the world is able to bear the consequences. The answer should be clear—it's not," he concluded.
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