January 19, 2026 | 11:10 am
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Statistics Indonesia (BPS) noted that the inflation trend, or the increase in prices of goods and services, has always occurred at the beginning of Ramadan and is higher compared to the previous month. Deputy for Distribution and Services Statistics of BPS, Pudji Ismartini, stated that the food, beverage, and tobacco group always contributes to inflation during the period leading up to Eid al-Fitr.
This year, the beginning of Ramadan is estimated to fall on February 18, 2026. Pudji mentioned, "In general, the commodities that contribute to inflation at the beginning of Ramadan are broiler chicken, chicken eggs, rice, cooking oil, and bird's eye chili. These commodities may be anticipated as we are entering Ramadan next month."
According to Pudji, historically, from 2021 to 2025, the food, beverage, and tobacco group has been the largest contributing factor to inflation at the beginning of Ramadan. For example, last year, the food, beverage, and tobacco group, as well as the housing, water, electricity, fuel, and household group, contributed approximately 1.55 percent to the 1.65 percent inflation in March 2025. Meanwhile, the transportation group had a significant contribution to inflation at the beginning of Ramadan in 2022 and 2023.
Within the food, beverage, and tobacco group, a range of food commodities contributed to varied inflation. In April 2021, the commodities that experienced price increases were broiler chicken and cooking oil. In 2022, cooking oil and chicken eggs saw the largest price increases. In 2023, rice, bird's eye chili, garlic, broiler chicken, and eggs saw the most price increases.
In 2024, chicken eggs reappeared as the first commodity that contributed the most to inflation at the beginning of Ramadan, followed by broiler chicken, rice, bird's eye chili, and garlic. Meanwhile, in 2025, the highest price increases were for shallots, followed by fresh fish, bird's eye chili, broiler chicken, and rice.
According to BPS records, inflation was highest at the beginning of Ramadan in 2025, increasing by 1.65 percent compared to the previous month. Because Ramadan begins at different times each year—sometimes at the beginning, sometimes in the middle, and sometimes at the end of the month—inflation rates vary.
There was 0.13 percent inflation at the beginning of Ramadan in 2021, 0.95 percent in 2022, 0.18 percent in 2023, and 0.52 percent in 2024.
Read: Indonesia Assures Year-End 2025 Inflation Won't Hit Purchasing Power
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