1 month ago
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December 9, 2024 | 10:32 am
The Syrian conflict is flaring up once again. The Syrian rebels have reignited the civil war in the country led by President Bashar Al Assad. Reuters reported that the Syrian war has rocked the calm front lines for years.
What is happening?
The rebels launched a sudden attack on November 26, 2024, striking from the areas in the north and northwest of Aleppo. They stormed into the city on November 29-30, forcing government forces out.
This is the first time control of the city has shifted since 2016 when government forces, backed by Russia and Iran, defeated the rebels who had held the eastern districts of Aleppo.
The rebels have pushed their advances in areas south and southwest of Aleppo, capturing territories in the Hama province.
The government has vowed to fight back. Russia, which deployed its air force to Syria in 2015 to aid Assad, has conducted air strikes to support the army.
This marks the most serious escalation of the conflict in recent years, adding to the death toll that has reached hundreds of thousands since 2011 when the war erupted due to the Arab Spring rebellion against Assad's government.
Since then, more than half of the pre-war population of 23 million people has been forced out of their homes, with millions fleeing abroad as refugees.
Who are these rebels?
The attack is spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham. Formerly known as the Nusra Front, this group was the official wing of Al Qaeda in the Syrian war until cutting ties in 2016.
HTS, led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, has long been a dominant force in the Idlib region, part of the northwest where the rebels maintain their foothold, despite Assad's victories elsewhere.
The United States and Russia, Turkey, and other countries have designated it as a terrorist group.
Other rebel alliances have launched separate attacks from northern Aleppo. These rebels are supported by Turkey and organized under the banner of the Syrian National Army.
Why has the conflict escalated now?
While peace remains far off, the front lines have not moved for years, with Syria divided into zones where foreign powers have troops on the ground.
Russia and Iran control government-held areas, the largest part of Syria. The United States has forces in the northeast and east, supporting the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. Turkey has troops in rebel-held northwest areas.
However, the regional power dynamics have been disrupted by over a year of conflict pitting Israel against Iran and its supported militant groups.
Hezbollah, in particular, has suffered significant blows during over two months of fighting with Israel in Lebanon. Hezbollah, which reached a ceasefire with Israel last week, aided Assad in retaking Aleppo in 2016.
US National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan, speaking on CNN's "State of the Union," said it is no surprise that the rebels would try to take advantage of the new situation, with the main supporters of the Syrian government - Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah - distracted and weakened by ongoing conflicts, referring to regional conflicts and the war in Ukraine.
An agreement between Russia and Turkey has stabilized the situation in the northwest since 2020. However, Turkey has expressed growing frustration with Assad's failure to reach a deal with the opposition to end the conflict.
Turkish security officials say that while Ankara is trying to stop rebel attacks, they are increasingly concerned about government forces' offensives against the rebels. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said that Assad and the rebels need to compromise.
One of Turkey's major concerns in Syria is the power held by Kurdish-led groups allied with Washington but deemed terrorists by Ankara. Turkey's state-run news agency, Anadolu, reported that the Syrian National Army (FSA) had seized the town of Tel Rifaat from Kurdish YPG militias.
Both Kremlin and Tehran have reiterated their support for the Syrian government.
Are there peace plans?
The UN Security Council issued a resolution in 2015 aimed at ending the conflict, calling for a new constitution, UN-monitored elections, and a transparent and accountable government.
Its implementation has stalled.
UN Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, warned that this escalation demonstrates a collective failure to realize a political process and the urgent need for substantive negotiations to find a way out of the conflict.
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