TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - NATO has hundreds and hundreds of pages of detailed military plans on how to protect itself against attack, but the scenarios of deterrence and defense always envisioned an external adversary. There's no playbook on how to handle President Donald Trump's ramped-up threats to take over territory of an ally by any means necessary. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte's strategy so far has been to remain silent, which won't work for long.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has sought to tamp down the U.S. appetite by warning Monday that "if the U.S. chooses to attack another NATO country militarily, then everything stops, including NATO and thus the security that has been established since the end of the Second World War."
Talk not cheap for NATO credibility
But even short of — or perhaps ahead of — any military movements, the impact of the escalating rhetoric alone cannot be underestimated.
"It is a huge victory for [Russian President Vladimir] Putin that we're even having this discussion," noted Patrik Oksanen, a senior fellow at the Stockholm Free World Forum, adding that the current situation inside the alliance would have been the ultimate dream of Soviet leaders.
"We are taking it quite seriously here up in the high north, that is, the combination that these remarks came so quickly after Venezuela and also has been strengthened both by first President Trump but then also his adviser [Stephen] Miller," who has both questioned Denmark's sovereignty over Greenland and whether any European troops would stand up against the U.S.
A social media post from Miller's wife, Katie, on Saturday, showing a map of Greenland covered by the U.S. flag with the word "SOON," has amplified the angst.
Ed Arnold of the Royal United Services Institute, himself a former official at NATO's military headquarters, agrees that the damage to NATO goes beyond jangled nerves.
"It's an alliance built on values and trust," Arnold told DW, so "even getting to this stage has weakened the alliance." The notion of having NATO consultations about this would also be bad "optics”, he added, with "32 allies all sitting around a table and the principal challenge and threat being from around the table."
Reinforcing forces?
Some observers suggest one solution could be NATO's European allies sending troops to Greenland, to show Trump they are taking its defense seriously and that any unilateral deployment from the U.S. would be unnecessary. Steven Everts, director of the European Union Institute for Security Studies, said there is value in that but only for the right reasons.
"Europeans ought to be taking Arctic security seriously," he said, "and if there are gaps, then we should try to fill them."
But he cautioned that this should not be approached as a way to placate Trump because it's already been proven by the previous attempts to do this that it "doesn't work."
"This is not a drill, people. This is not something that you can just wait out and hope for it to get better," he said. "This will only change if we take forceful action to hold our ground, not in an aggressive way — we're not going to fight the American military over Greenland if it comes to that — but we have to be very, very clear about how we see the future of Greenland and the future the alliance and everything that comes with it."
Danes dig in
Anders Vistisen, a Danish member of the European Parliament, agrees with Everts, saying Europe should "stop playing diplomatic games, giving in, trying to persuade the U.S. to be more reasonable or try to appease them by spending more on military in the Arctic region or giving them mining concession rights in Greenland or whatever else that's been talked about."
While Vistisen's political leanings as a member of the right-wing Danish People's Party may lead one to believe he'd make common cause with Trump on some issues, the lawmaker actually made headlines — and waves — a year ago when he used a profanity in telling Trump what he could do with his intent to buy Greenland. He told DW he has promised not to repeat the phrase publicly, but stands by the sentiment and his tactic to use frank language to convey to Washington the unacceptability of its position.
"We are at a point that is so serious that there can be no room for doubt or any maneuverability within our communication," Vistisen said. "We should have a very strong and very clear rebuttal and say to the American administration and President Trump, 'No, you're not going to have any claim in Greenland, you are not going to persuade us, push us, bully us into acting any differently.'"
Vistisen said although he appreciates statements of support from other European leaders, he doesn't believe they'd actually send troops to Greenland. He's looking to his own prime minister to mount a tough enough defense.
"This is something that has to be resolved between the Kingdom of Denmark and the U.S. administration," he said.
EU to NATO's rescue?
One of Vistisen's EU colleagues, Per Clausen of the Left group, believes it's the other side of Brussels that may hold the power to influence this situation. Clausen posted a letter to his counterparts in the European Parliament, proposing that the legislature's approval of last year's deal on trans-Atlantic tariffs, widely seen to favor the U.S., be suspended until Washington lays off Greenland.
"If we accept this agreement while Trump is threatening the international order and making direct territorial claims against Denmark," Clausen's letter states, "it will be seen as rewarding his action and will only be adding fuel to the fire."
"We have a lot things we could do that could harm the U.S. very much, if you're talking about the economy," Clausen said. "And I think we should make it totally clear for the United States that we want to use this weapon if the U.S. doesn't stop with aggression against Greenland."
EU leaders' response 'spoke to the seriousness' of Trump threat
Clausen, who was speaking to DW from Denmark, said his fellow citizens are "very, very angry," more than afraid. He hopes his proposal will gain enough political weight to make the U.S. take notice, to "see that Denmark is not isolated in this situation and that European leaders are not only talking about the solidarity with Denmark and Greenland, but they also are willing to act."
Steven Everts said he has seen at least one encouraging sign of that. While meeting in Paris in the format of the Coalition of the Willing to support Ukraine on Tuesday, the leaders of Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK joined Denmark's Frederiksen in a joint statement underscoring that "It is for Denmark and Greenland, and them only, to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland."
They issued the statement just before meeting with U.S. intermediaries Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, not shying away from the confrontation that might have been created or its impact on U.S. support for Europe's Ukraine efforts. It's a step that might seem small, but Everts said it "spoke to the seriousness" with which leaders view the threat.
Patrik Oksanen of the Stockholm Free World Forum said the severity of the situation deserves that and more. Never mind the end of NATO, if the U.S. forces its way into Greenland he said it would be no less than the "end of time as we know it."
Read: US Secretary of State to Meet Danish Officials Amid Greenland Tensions
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