Warnings of Potential Bearish IHSG as Trump Announces New Tariffs

21 hours ago 13

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Financial market observer Ibrahim Assuaibi warns that the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) could enter a bearish phase following the U.S. President Donald Trump's imposition of import tariffs.

He projects that the IHSG has the potential to weaken significantly by 2-3 percent on Tuesday, April 8, 2025, the first day of trading at the Stock Exchange after the long holiday commemorating Eid al-Fitr 1446 Hijriah. "The IHSG is expected to be down 2 to 3 percent in Tuesday's trading," Ibrahim said when contacted by Antara in Jakarta on Thursday.

He explains that the bearish phase of the IHSG will be more influenced by the sentiment of Trump's imposition of import tariffs on various trading partners. "Because the impact of this trade war is quite extraordinary, especially since Indonesia is included in the import costs from the U.S.," Ibrahim said.

On this occasion, he recommends ways to deal with the impact of imposing U.S. import tariffs, including the government needing to resist by applying import costs similar to those imposed by the U.S. on Indonesia. "Indonesia is a member of BRICS, so the BRICS member must be executed so that Indonesia's exports to the U.S., which previously experienced a surplus, are redirected," Ibrahim said.

Furthermore, he says the government can provide policy stimulus, as has been done by Bank Indonesia (BI), which has intervention instruments through Domestic Non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF) in the domestic foreign exchange (forex) market. "This is what the government must do, so that even if the U.S. continues its trade war against Indonesia, Indonesia is ready to fight back," Ibrahim said.

On Wednesday, April 2, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a combination of universal and reciprocal tariffs that will be applied to various countries worldwide.

Trump stated that a basic tariff of 10 percent will be imposed on all countries, while additional 'reciprocal' tariffs will be applied to specific trading partners.

These reciprocal tariffs include 34 percent on China, 20 percent on Europe, 46 percent on Vietnam, 32 percent on Taiwan, and 24 percent on Japan. Then 26 percent on India, 25 percent on South Korea, 36 percent on Thailand, 31 percent on Switzerland, 32 percent on Indonesia, 24 percent on Malaysia, 49 percent on Cambodia, 10 percent on the United Kingdom, and 30 percent on South Africa.

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