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TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Scientists warn that efforts to limit the long-term rise in temperature to 1.5° Celsius will fail as data confirms 2024 will be the hottest year in human history.
Hopes of keeping global warming below 1.5° Celsius above pre-industrial levels have been dashed after new data confirmed that 2024 will be the first calendar year in which average temperatures surpass the critical threshold.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) declared on January 10 that 2024 would be the hottest year ever recorded in human history. The organization also warned that humans are pushing Earth's climate into unpredictable and uncharted territory.
Quoted from the New Scientist website, the WMO said the average global temperature over the year exceeded 1.5° Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline for the first time. This rise temporarily breached the threshold set by the Paris Agreement.
The WMO assessment was calculated using average global temperatures across six data sets, with the period 1850 to 1900 used to provide a pre-industrial baseline.
The temperature data collected by different agencies and institutions worldwide varies slightly, mainly due to differences in how ocean temperatures have been measured and analyzed over the decades. Some of these data sets fall just below the 1.5° Celsius mark, but others are well above it.
The UK Met Office weather service estimates the average temperature of 2024 to be 1.53° Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures, with a margin of error of 0.08° Celsius. That's 0.07° Celsius above the temperature of 2023, the warmest year on record. Meanwhile, the European Union's climate change service Copernicus predicted 2024 temperatures of 1.6° Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures, 0.12° Celsius above the 2023 record.
Berkeley Earth, a climate research group in California, found a rise of 1.62° Celsius, the second time in its research that the global average temperature rise has breached 1.5° Celsius after 2023.
Temperature data from NASA put the temperature rise slightly lower at 1.47° Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found a rise of 1.46° Celsius above pre-industrial levels. The WMO found an average increase of 1.55° Celsius across the six data sets, with a margin of error of 0.13°C.
Scientists agree that the temperature spike is largely due to continued human-induced climate change and the El Niño weather pattern, which tends to increase global temperatures.
However, the scale and resilience of the heat has surprised many experts, who expected temperatures to subside after El Niño ended in May 2024. Instead, temperatures remained at their highest levels throughout the rest of the year.
The world's oceans were hardest hit, with sea surface temperatures remaining at their highest levels for most of 2024, wreaking havoc on marine ecosystems. The year also brought plenty of extreme weather on land, with devastating heatwaves, a sharp decline in polar ice, deadly floods and uncontrollable wildfires.
"This was the year when the impacts of climate change were felt across the planet," David King, former chief scientific adviser to the UK government and founder of the Climate Crisis Advisory Group, was quoted as saying by New Scientist.
Technically, the Paris Agreement target limits warming to below 1.5°C Celsius. The calculation uses a 20-year average of conditions, so a year above the threshold does not signify an official target violation. However, given the pace of warming in recent years, many scientists say the long-term Paris goals are now unattainable.
"These sudden new records in 2023 and 2024 complement other evidence that recent global warming appears to be moving faster than expected," said Robert Rohde of Berkeley Earth.
"Whether the increase in global warming is a temporary change or part of a new long-term trend remains to be seen. Nonetheless, the Paris Agreement target of staying below 1.5°C is not yet achievable, and the long-term average will surpass this milestone in the next five to 10 years," he added.
In a briefing on January 9, Samantha Burgess of Copernicus told reporters that the Paris Agreement target may now be impossible to achieve. "There is a very high probability that we will exceed the long-term average of 1.5°C and the Paris Agreement limits," she said.
Dr. Duo Chan of the University of Southampton, UK, has helped develop a new global dataset, DCENT, which he says uses advanced technology to produce a more accurate historical baseline for the rate of warming. This new dataset shows the global average temperature for 2024 is 1.66° Celsius above pre-industrial levels, he says, even though it is not included in the WMO calculations.
As a result, Chan also believes the 1.5°C target may now be unattainable. "We need to prepare for a broader future, and 1.5° Celsius is not the only target we should aim for," he said.
However, he emphasized that this should also be an important moment to be more ambitious in cutting emissions. "It's too early to give up," he said.
The outlook for 2025 remains unclear. There are early signs that global sea surface temperatures are finally starting to cool to expected levels. "That's a good sign that the heat is at least dissipating from the ocean surface," Burgess said.
Meanwhile, after months of waiting, a La Niña phase has finally formed in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which should dampen global temperatures until 2025.
But Chan warns that the world may experience a major shift in warming if temperatures follow the pattern of previous El Niño events. "Every time we see a large El Niño event, global warming essentially increases to a new level, which suggests that 2024 could be the first of many years where average temperatures exceed 1.5°Celsius," he said.
IRSYAN HASYIM | ERWIN PRIMA
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