December 19, 2025 | 10:47 am
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Bank Indonesia (BI) predicts that recent disasters in Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra will reduce economic growth by 0.017 percent. However, BI Deputy Governor Aida S. Budiman noted that this figure is based on early calculations.
"The impact on the economy is indeed negative. Since these are preliminary calculations, the estimated hit to this year's Gross Domestic Product is only minus 0.017 percent," Aida stated during a press conference following the Board of Governors Meeting on Friday, December 19, 2025.
She noted that the assessment covers 32 days of lost economic activity across the three Sumatra provinces.
Aida explained that measuring the impact of disasters on growth is complex. Officials must look beyond financial data to include social effects. The process involves several factors, including the loss of assets, lower productivity, local business closures, and the cost of reconstruction efforts.
Regarding inflation in the three disaster-affected provinces, BI is waiting for official data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). However, BI's own monitoring shows that prices for staples like rice, eggs, and onions have started to improve.
"The prices for chicken and bird's eye chili remain somewhat high. Overall, however, inflation is only slightly above the midpoint of our 2.5 percent target," Aida added. This suggests that while food prices rose due to supply chain breaks, the overall pressure on the economy remains manageable.
Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto previously warned that growth in the flood-hit areas of Sumatra would weaken. He made these comments regarding the fourth-quarter growth projection, which has a maximum target of 5.6 percent.
"Economic growth in disaster-hit areas, specifically North Sumatra, Aceh, and West Sumatra, is certain to decline," Airlangga said in Jakarta on Thursday, December 4, 2025. He stated that the government will push for higher growth in other regions to ensure national targets are still met. Alfitria Nefi Pratiwi contributed to this report.
Alfitria Nefi Pratiwi contributed to the report.
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