TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Days before US President Donald Trump marked his first year back in the White House on Tuesday, China released a series of economic data showing signs of resilience against trade pressure from the United States.
The world's second-largest economy reported 5% economic growth for 2025 on Monday, meeting the government's annual target. Data released last week also showed a record trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion for the year.
Analysts say the surplus, driven by dumping exports on non-US markets, indicates that Chinese products remain globally competitive on price and that Beijing has managed to cushion the blow of Trump's trade policies.
"[The Trump administration] may have entered the office thinking that they could use their economic leverage to push China in certain policy directions," said Amanda Hsiao, a China studies director at the Eurasia Group consultancy.
"In fact, Beijing has its own pieces of leverage that match Washington's as well."
Beijing confident in pushing back against Trump
Trump's approach to China is seen as placing less emphasis on ideology and more on economic and technology rivalry, a shift reflected in Washington's latest National Security Strategy released in December.
Kicking off his second term with so-called reciprocal tariffs on countries around the world, Trump soon renewed a tit-for-tat trade war with China as Beijing hit back.
The peak of their trade dispute came in April, with the US imposing tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese goods and China, in return, raising its total tariffs to the same level and announcing export controls on rare earth elements.
"Basically the two sides had loaded each of their guns and pointed at each other," said Hsiao, before they realized the scale of the "mutually assured pain" inflicted on their economies.
The two sides eventually backed down following a first round of trade talks in May, with tariffs rolled back and currently sitting at around 30% on each other's products.
"Beijing really took the risk of hitting back against Trump. And this approach was vindicated when Washington retreated and opted for a detente," Hsiao said, adding that Beijing could now think its tough approach was "correct."
Diao Daming, a professor of international studies at Renmin University of China in Beijing, also said compared to Trump's first term, Beijing has emerged with "greater confidence" in responding to "potential uncertainties from Washington."
On the economic and trade fronts, China has eventually established a degree of "mutual checks and balances" with the US following a year of strategic tug-of-war, he told DW.
Strategic calculations behind trade truce
From a fierce battle to a cautious trade truce, US-China relations have now moved toward stabilization while the overall strategic competition remains.
In 2025, Trump stepped up top level engagement with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, including four phone calls and one in-person meeting between the two leaders.
Such top-level diplomacy played a critical role in stabilizing the US-China relations over the past year, said Diao, highlighting the importance of dialogue amid their differences.
Trump boasted his meeting with Xi in Busan, South Korea, in October was a "12 out of 10," while Xi urged both sides to focus on the long-term benefits of cooperation and not fall into "a vicious cycle of retaliation."
From a strategic point of view, however, the current truce could serve as a useful "interim" for both Washington and Beijing.
Eurasia Group's Hsiao said the goal for Beijing is to "use the space to put itself into a better position to compete with the US in the future."
In the meantime, Washington also needs that space to build up a critical minerals supply chain. "While it hasn't done that, it will still want to maintain relatively stable relations with China," Hsiao added.
What to expect in 2026
In 2026, there are expected to be as many as four Trump–Xi encounters, including Trump's state visit to Beijing in April and Xi's reciprocal visit to Washington later in the year.
Trump and Xi will also likely attend the APEC meeting in Shenzhen, China, in November and the G20 Miami leaders' summit in December.
Apart from Trump's visit to Beijing, China has not yet confirmed the attendance of its leader Xi Jinping to the other three proposed meetings.
The analysts speaking with DW both remain positive that the stability of the US-China relations would extend through 2026, especially as the level of mutual economic dependency has stayed unchanged.
However, Trump's unpredictability could emerge in other areas, as Beijing weighs its strategic interests.
Washington's recent military actions, including the toppling of Venezuela's leader and Trump's pursuit of Greenland, have created "an enabling environment for China to increase its coercive practices," Hsiao said.
Although China is unlikely to change its calculus over invading Taiwan, the self-ruling democratic island it claims as its own, Trump's actions may have reinforced Beijing's belief that might is right.
Beijing now "might believe that it can ratchet up those pressures… without incurring significant costs" and that "major powers can dispense with international law," Hsiao said.
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