January 6, 2026 | 04:45 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Chief Economist of Permata Bank, Josua Pardede, predicts that inflation throughout the first quarter of 2026 will stay above 3 percent. "Due to the low base effect," Josua said in a text message on Tuesday, January 6, 2025.
In January 2025, inflation was recorded at 0.76 percent. In February 2025, Indonesia experienced a 0.09 percent deflation rate before an inflation rate of 1.03 percent occurred in March 2025.
Josua explained that inflation in the first quarter of this year could potentially be higher than in the same period in 2025 because an economic stimulus program in the form of electricity tariff discounts was implemented in January and February of that year.
According to Josua, three factors support inflation growth this year. The first is food, which is affected by extreme weather, floods, and distribution obstacles. These factors quickly drive up the price of fresh food, especially during periods of high seasonal demand.
The second driver is the exchange rate and global commodity prices. Joshua estimates that if global uncertainty continues, the price of gold will remain high, contributing to inflation through the rise in domestic gold prices. He also emphasized the importance of monitoring the movement of energy prices, although the impact of their increase is expected to be limited and temporary.
The third factor is domestic policy. Josua said that government spending relaxation and supportive interest rate policies can strengthen demand, including maintaining strong demand for food. "So, inflation is more easily driven if supply is not ready," he said.
He predicts that inflation will ease to 2.72 percent by the end of the year. Meanwhile, on an annual basis, Josua predicts that inflation will be above 2.5 percent in 2026, but will likely remain below 3 percent. It will gradually decrease after seasonal pressures subside.
To control inflation, Josua suggests that the government not only restrain demand but also strengthen food supply and smooth distribution.
For example, by ensuring that stocks and inter-regional distribution run quickly during extreme weather, reducing logistics costs during disasters, strengthening price stabilization operations in areas experiencing inflation spikes, and improving the government's food procurement patterns. The aim is to prevent food supply shortages in the market.
He also emphasized the importance of being vigilant about weather disturbances and distribution disruptions when the rupiah weakens, which creates price pressure and makes inflation volatile regardless of strong demand.
Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia predicts that inflation will remain in the range of 1.5-3.5 percent in 2026 and 2027.
Read: IHSG Hits Record High Amid Stable Domestic Economic Data
Click here to get the latest news updates from Tempo on Google News
Rupiah Weakens to 16,758 per US Dollar Amid Global Unrest
17 menit lalu
The Indonesian rupiah weakened to 16,758 per US dollar on Jan. 6. Experts cite the US-Venezuela conflict and domestic inflation as the primary causes.
IHSG Hits Record High Amid Stable Domestic Economic Data
21 jam lalu
IHSG climbed by 111.06 points, or 1.27 percent, to finish at 8,859.19.
Iran Starts 2026 Facing Protests, Inflation and Sanctions
4 hari lalu
By late 2025, inflation sparked shop closures across Iran. Now in 2026, the government faces sanctions, economic crisis, and environmental threats.
UOB Study Finds Shifts in Consumer Shopping Habits Amid Inflation
34 hari lalu
Indonesians are not reducing their spending; rather, they are changing their shopping habits.
BPS Logs 0.17% Inflation in November 2025
36 hari lalu
The dominant commodity driving inflation in the expenditure group was gold jewelry, contributing to an inflation rate of 0.08 percent.
Labor Party Postpones Rally, Proposes 3 Formulas for 2026 Minimum Wage
42 hari lalu
Labor Party President Said Iqbal said that, despite the postponement, laborers have proposed 3 calculation options for the government to consider.
Trump Exempts Tariffs on Beef, Coffee, and Other Foods Amid Rising Inflation
52 hari lalu
The new exemption represents a concession by Trump, reversing his long-standing claim that his import duties do not contribute to inflation.
Largest Redenominations in History and Why the Countries Need Them
53 hari lalu
For some countries, redenomination becomes the only option to keep their economy going after severe inflation. Among them are Germany and Zimbabwe.
Indonesia's Inflation Driven by Gold Price Surge Seen as Positive Economic Signal
4 November 2025
Minister Airlangga Hartarto said Indonesia's October inflation, driven by soaring global gold prices, reflects positive economic momentum.
BI: October 2025 Inflation Remains Stable
4 November 2025
Bank Indonesia (BI) stated that the October 2025 inflation remained within the targeted range of 2.5 plus minus 1 percent.
