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November 5, 2024 | 12:44 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Israeli historian Michael Bar Zohar has predicted an imminent ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah, citing Hezbollah's severe cornering and significant losses.
“Hezbollah in Lebanon has endured several heavy blows, making a ceasefire agreement likely in the coming weeks or months,” Bar Zohar told Tempo on Saturday, November 2, 2024.
He drew parallels with the Gaza war, where Hamas forces were decimated, reducing the conflict to sporadic guerrilla attacks by disorganized Hamas groups against concentrated Israeli forces in Gaza.
“Israel has pledged to withdraw most of its troops from the Gaza Strip immediately after international forces, preferably Arab, assume control,” he explained.
Bar-Zohar further noted that Israel's neighboring countries, such as Syria, seem hesitant to intervene in the conflict. Moreover, Jordan and Egypt, having established peace agreements with Israel, have no intention of violating them.
“In past conflicts, Israel has typically defended itself against attacks or threats from neighboring countries. The current situation is no different,” he observed.
Iran emerges as the only potential external player in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, driven by a long history of animosity.
“Such involvement could occur if Iran retaliates forcefully against Israel's recent attack, which was a response to 182 ballistic missile attacks from Iran to Israel on October 1. This could trigger a full-scale retaliation from Israel,” he warned.
Hezbollah has initiated attacks on Israel in support of Hamas, which launched an offensive on October 7, 2024. Hamas is currently engaged in combat against Israeli forces in Gaza.
The Gaza war has reportedly claimed the lives of 43,000 Palestinian civilians. The Israel-Hezbollah conflict in Lebanon has resulted in at least 2,897 fatalities, with 71 Israel casualties attributed to Hezbollah gunfire.
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