South Africa are a formidable rugby team. To beat them, you don’t only have to come out on top on the field, you also have to outwit the total genius of their coach.
Rassie Erasmus is running a sporting machine. The Springboks are back-to-back World Cup winners and by a stretch the best team on the planet right now. They are not standing still, either.
Erasmus is continually innovating, taking his side to new heights with outside-the-box techniques. The likes of England and France have significant ground to make up on South Africa as things stand, if they are to deny them a third straight world title in Australia in 2027.
That said, let me be clear that the Springboks are undoubtedly beatable.
In August, they lost at home to Australia. A repeat result will clearly be beyond Wales this weekend when they take on a full-powered South Africa in Cardiff, given their on and off-field struggles of the past two years. But for the rest of the game’s top teams, there is still hope.
The key to overcoming South Africa revolves around the game’s basics - and in that regard, rugby hasn’t really changed. For me, the three key things any team must master to win at international level are the scrum, lineout and restarts.
The Springboks are back-to-back World Cup winners and by a stretch the best team on the planet right now. They are not standing still, either
The likes of England and France have significant ground to make up on South Africa as things stand, if they are to deny them a third straight world title in Australia in 2027
That said, let me be clear that the Springboks are undoubtedly beatable
Those were my keys to success. If any team can nail their performance in those three areas, then they have a very good chance of coming out on top.
Look at South Africa. They’ve taken their scrum and lineout to a whole new level. The fearsome scrummaging power of their pack is the best I’ve ever seen in the Test game. In any given match, Erasmus can call on six front-row forwards who can destroy their opposition.
That’s exactly what happened in their win over Ireland last week. Erasmus tends to replace all his front-row forwards and indeed most of his pack at around the 50-minute mark. It essentially means he has a front row for either half.
But in Dublin he seized the moment when the Irish front row was quaking and desperate for the half-time whistle. Erasmus brought on a pair of fresh props with the clock in the red in the first half - it immediately led to (another) yellow card for Ireland and a penalty try for South Africa.
I’m not sure I like it, but that is clearly the way the modern game is going. South Africa have their ‘Bomb Squad’, England have the ‘Pom Squad’. Whatever you want to call it, having forward power off the bench is now key.
As good as South Africa’s scrum is, I think their lineout is on an equal footing. The power of their scrum gets most of the headlines and rightly so because it is phenomenal. But at lineout time, Erasmus has a battery of outstanding locks to call on.
So, how can any team stop South Africa in these areas?
At scrum time, the key for their opposition is not to worry about trying to get the upper hand. South Africa’s front row is so powerful that overpowering them is nigh on impossible. If I were coaching against them, I would tell my forwards to get the ball in and away from the scrum as quickly as possible.
At scrum time, the key for their opposition is not to worry about trying to get the upper hand. South Africa’s front row is so powerful that overpowering them is nigh on impossible
As good as South Africa’s scrum is, I think their lineout is on an equal footing
The fearsome scrummaging power of their pack is the best I’ve ever seen in the Test game. They took Ireland apart last week in Dublin, with the hosts shown five cards
You don’t need to go to war with them. Playing with pace is vital. That’s what Australia did to beat them - coming from 22-0 down in Johannesburg to romp to a 38-22 victory - and we’ve seen that the Wallabies are not one of the best sides in the world this autumn.
If they can win on South African soil, so can the likes of England, when Steve Borthwick’s side face the Springboks away next summer. For me, that game is already shaping up to be a monumental encounter. It will be an acid test of England’s progression.
South Africa like to slow the game down. They take an age to form for a scrum or lineout, saving themselves for the engagement where they can wreak havoc with their power.
Opposition teams need to counteract that. On their own ball, quick throws from lineouts are a great option, either short to the front or right over the top to an onrushing centre.
When South Africa have possession, you just have to do your best to stay in the contest! The strength of their pack is nothing new.
But what I think Erasmus deserves a great deal of credit for is the way he’s evolved his team’s attacking ability behind the scrum, with the flowing freedom of the likes of Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, Damian Willemse and Cheslin Kolbe.
Clearly, doing that is easier when you have the platform provided by behemoths like Eben Etzebeth. You see all the time in South Africa games the backs praising the forwards.
Wales don’t have the players to deal with Erasmus’ side. I do, however, believe that England can. So too France and Ireland.
What I think Erasmus deserves a great deal of credit for is the way he’s evolved his team’s attacking ability behind the scrum - as shown by Damian Willemse's try last week
Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu is one of the most exciting fly-halves in world rugby right now and offers another dimension to the Boks
You don’t need to go to war with them - if I were coaching against them, I would tell my forwards to get the ball in and away from the scrum as quickly as possible
Even without a host of key men for Saturday’s Wales game, the Springbok side is formidable. Wales also have their top players missing as the game takes place outside of World Rugby’s Test window.
I really fear for Steve Tandy and Wales with South Africa having seven forwards on the bench. There will be no let-up for Wales’ youthful squad. Many of them face a baptism of fire.
Dave Reddin, who was a key man in England’s 2003 World Cup-winning team as fitness coach, is the WRU’s director of rugby. He has a big job on his hands.
I speak to Dave regularly and believe he’s the right man to enact the change Welsh rugby needs, even if some of the proposals on the table have received criticism.
One thing I think Wales can do better is make more use of their ex-players. It's not long ago that the country had a golden generation that was winning Grand Slams.
In players like Alun Wyn Jones, Sam Warburton, Ken Owens, Dan Biggar, Jonathan Davies and many others, Welsh rugby had an incredible amount of talent.
I don’t see them still involved in the game. All of those guys I’ve mentioned do media work. But I’d like to see them coaching.
I’ve argued in the past that Warburton would be a fantastic coach. I know he did it briefly with Wales. But the WRU has to tap more into his knowledge in some way.
One thing I think Wales can do better is make more use of their ex-players. It's not long ago that the country had a golden generation that was winning Grand Slams
Pieter Rossouw runs in one of 15 Springbok tries in 1998 en route to a hat-trick for himself and a record defeat for Wales - a 96-13 hammering. Will that record be under threat this week?
Australia showed that South Africa are by no means invincible in August, coming from 22-0 down to win 38-22 in Johannesburg
It would be a criminal waste not to. Warburton can easily coach Wales again or be an adviser to Dave. The same is true of Biggar, whose analysis I think is excellent both in his Daily Mail Sport columns and on television.
Earlier this year, I was at the same charity event as Davies. We sat next to each other and talked. I was hugely impressed by not only his rugby knowledge, but his intellect and persona.
Wales have to try and get these guys on board in some shape or form. They have so much knowledge they can pass on, especially when both the coaching and playing group is so young. Wales are in for a very tough time against South Africa.
The result is a foregone conclusion - it could be a cricket score.

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