1 week ago
6
November 6, 2024 | 01:11 pm
Global investors were increasingly pricing in a win late on Tuesday for Republican Donald Trump, as the former president took a lead in U.S. presidential elections, with some battleground states yet to post results.
U.S. stock futures and the dollar pushed higher while Treasury yields climbed and bitcoin rose—all flagged by analysts and investors as trades that favor a Trump win over Democrat Kamala Harris.
"Our county-by-county analysis in key states suggests that Harris is lagging vs 2020, and on this basis, it is logical that the market is starting to price a Trump win, as seen in bonds, and the dollar," said Jens Nordvig, CEO at analytical firm Exante.
The results so far underscore how one of the most unusual—and tightest—presidential elections in modern U.S. history could have far-reaching implications for tax and trade policy, as well as U.S. institutions.
The results affect assets globally and determine the outlook for U.S. debt, the strength of the dollar, and a host of industries that make up the backbone of Corporate America.
Leading into Tuesday, polls showed a dead heat between the former president and the current vice president. But by 11 pm ET, Trump had won 211 Electoral College votes compared with 145 for Harris, with a third of the vote counted.
Republicans also won control of the U.S. Senate, ensuring they will dominate at least one chamber of Congress next year.
GROWING CONFIDENCE
Despite the uncertainty, popular election betting platforms leaned heavily in Trump's favor, while trades in assets whose prices could be influenced by Trump's pledges to raise tariffs, cut taxes, and slash regulations showed growing bets on a Trump victory on Tuesday evening.
"The consequence is a higher path of rates," said Nick Ferres, chief investment officer at Vantage Point Asset Management in Singapore. He was buying bank shares in anticipation that higher yields and stronger growth would benefit their earnings.
Bank stocks rose 4.4% in Tokyo (.IBNKS.T) and outperformed the market in Australia (.AXFJ). Shares of Trump Media and Technology Group (DJT.O) surged 10% in extended trade after a volatile day session, while the Mexican peso , which could be hit by tariffs, sank to a two-year low, about 3% weaker than its closing price from the previous session. The euro also fell, fueled by worries that a Trump presidency could mean Europe faces trade tariffs and is forced to pay more for its defense.
Bitcoin surged to a record high in Asia trade, betting on a softer line on cryptocurrency regulation.
"Markets are growing confident that the election result will be called and that a 'red sweep’ of Congress is possible," said Ben Emons, founder of Fedwatch Advisors in Washington.
Several investors said the results so far suggested markets would have clarity faster than in 2020 when Joe Biden was announced the victor some four days after election night.
"That's what markets have been most worried about, that there would be a long, drawn-out fight over who won," said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group.
'VOLATILE NIGHT'
Elsewhere on Wall Street, some bankers, investors, and analysts said they were waiting out the count—in some cases anxiously—with friends and family.
Alex Jaros, a former investment banker who now works in private credit in New York, was at a watch party at a bar organized by the New York Young Republican Club.
"It's looking very positive right now," even though the election has not been called conclusively, Jaros said.
The group sold 500 tickets for the packed event, which had a "busy, excited" atmosphere, Jaros said in an interview, as attendees chanted "U-S-A" in the background.
Joe McCann, CEO of Asymmetric, a macro hedge fund that trades primarily in cryptocurrencies, said he has been tracking election news on several TV screens and monitoring market movements in his 50th-floor Miami penthouse.
"We have not left this room all day," he said. "We are expecting a volatile night."
REUTERS
Editor’s Choice: Trump vs Harris: US Voters Head to Polls as Turbulent Campaign Concludes
Click here to get the latest news updates from Tempo on Google News
Results of National Exit Poll on U.S. Presidential Election
7 menit lalu
Democrat Kamala Harris faced Republican Donald Trump on Tuesday in the U.S. presidential election, after the two candidates vied for support.
Trump vs Harris: US Voters Head to Polls as Turbulent Campaign Concludes
15 jam lalu
The dizzying presidential contest between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris hurtled toward an uncertain finish on Tuesday.
Boeing Strike Ends as Workers Accept New Contract
19 jam lalu
Boeing's U.S. West Coast factory workers accepted a new contract offer on Monday, ending a bitter seven-week strike that halted most jet production.
10 U.S. Presidents Without College Degrees: From Washington to Truman
20 jam lalu
In American history, only a few presidents ran for the presidency without college degrees. Here are 10 U.S. presidents without college degrees.
Governance's Fresh Stances; U.S. Presidents Without Political Experience
21 jam lalu
Donald Trump was not the first U.S. president to serve without any solid political involvement. Let's find out more figures here.
Jakarta Regional Election May Go for Two Rounds; Researcher Says
1 hari lalu
Researcher at Kompas Research & Development, Rangga Eka Sakti, said there was a potential for the Jakarta regional head election to take two rounds.
5 Most Watched Sports in America: Basketball Ranks Third
1 hari lalu
Sports in the U.S. are considered one of the most favored things. From football to ice hockey, here is the list of the most watched sports in America.
Kamala Harris Vows to End Gaza War If Elected in Final Election Appeal to Arab Americans
1 hari lalu
Kamala Harris promised on Sunday to do everything possible to end Israel's attacks in Gaza if elected as president.
How to Vote in the U.S. Presidential Election: All You Need to Know
1 hari lalu
In this article, we will learn about how to vote in the U.S. and some important dates you need to know during the 2024 presidential election.
Two Days Before U.S. Presidential Election, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump Compete for Support in 7 States
2 hari lalu
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are fiercely competing in 7 states two days before the 2024 U.S. presidential election, based on a survey.
