April 14, 2026 | 01:07 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has forecast that the 2026 dry season is likely to be drier than the 30-year average.
BMKG Climate Change Director Fachri Rajab said the dry season this year is also expected to start earlier and last longer.
“Compared with the 30-year average, this year’s dry season is relatively drier. However, it should be emphasized that this means drier than average, not the most extreme dry season in the past 30 years,” Fachri said during a discussion marking World Meteorological Day in Jakarta on Tuesday.
Fachri clarified recent public claims describing the 2026 dry season as extremely severe, with some referring to it as “Godzilla El Niño,” saying BMKG does not use such terms and considers them exaggerated.
He added that, in comparison, the 1997 and 2015 dry seasons were significantly more severe, while this year is projected to be drier than 2023.
According to BMKG, this year’s conditions are influenced by an active El Niño phenomenon emerging between late April and early May 2026, which is reducing rainfall intensity across Indonesia.
“El Niño and the dry season are two different things. Although El Niño affects the intensity of the dry season, the dry season does not occur because of El Niño,” he said.
He explained that Indonesia, as a tropical country, naturally experiences annual wet and dry seasons regardless of El Niño conditions.
“With this year’s dry season coinciding with an active El Niño, rainfall is relatively lower. At present, the El Niño intensity is still in the weak category,” Fachri said.
BMKG expects the El Niño intensity to increase from weak to moderate in the third quarter of 2026, around August to October, based on its climatology analysis.
Fachri stressed that the information should be taken seriously but not cause panic, urging cross-sector collaboration and public preparedness to ensure water availability and protect agriculture and plantations.
“Once again, we emphasize that this year’s dry season is relatively drier than average, and there is an El Niño phenomenon. But El Niño only comes in weak, moderate, strong, and very strong categories. There is no such thing as ‘Pokemon El Niño’ or ‘King Kong El Niño’. Those do not exist,” he added.
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