November 7, 2025 | 12:24 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has warned that the Earth will exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius global warming threshold within the next ten years. This finding was revealed in the Emissions Gap 2025 report released on Tuesday, November 4, just a few days before the COP30 climate summit in Brazil.
The report indicates that the global average temperature will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius before 2035. In order to stay below this threshold, the world must reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent from 2019 levels by 2035. However, UNEP believes the likelihood of achieving this target is very low due to inadequate mitigation efforts.
"Given the size of the cuts needed, the short time available to deliver them and a challenging political climate, a higher exceedance of 1.5°C will happen, very likely within the next decade," stated a UNEP representative in the report, as quoted from Live Science on November 6, 2025.
The report also serves as a reminder that global warming beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius will have significant impacts on humanity, especially in developing and island nations.
Based on scientific studies, a 2 degrees Celsius warming could more than double the number of people exposed to extreme heat, accelerate Arctic sea ice loss to occur once per decade, exacerbate coral reef damage by 29 percent, and melt 38 percent more ice sheets compared to a 1.5 degrees Celsius increase.
UNEP states that in order to stay below the temperature threshold, countries need to reduce emissions by 35 percent from 2019 levels by 2035. However, the emission reduction pledges made so far are putting the world on a path towards a 2.3 to 2.5 degrees Celsius warming. Without significant changes, the world is projected to warm by 2.8 degrees Celsius by 2100.
Although this year's report shows slight improvement compared to the previous year, with a decrease in the projected temperature rise from 3.1 degrees Celsius to 2.8 degrees Celsius, UNEP deems this change as not significant enough. The report mentions that the improvement is largely attributed to new calculation methods, while the decision of the United States to exit the Paris Agreement could nullify this small progress.
New commitments from countries such as China this year have "barely moved the needle," the report said, adding that countries are still far from meeting the Paris Agreement targets.
The report was released ahead of COP30 in Brazil, which will serve as a crucial platform to renew global commitments to climate action. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva stated, "We want it to be serious, and for the things we decide to be implemented."
He also plans to propose the establishment of a global environmental council that can directly review the progress of countries towards their climate pledges. "Otherwise, nothing will happen," he added.
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