December 21, 2025 | 06:27 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) forecasts that the 93S tropical cyclone seed will develop into a permanent storm on Sunday evening, December 22, 2025.
The center of its wind rotation is currently located in the waters southwest of West Java in the Indonesian Ocean.
The system’s maximum wind speed has been observed at 35 knots, or 65 kilometers per hour. Based on satellite images over the past 12 hours, BMKG weather forecaster Rika Kariani noted that convective activity fluctuated overnight, decreasing before strengthening again from early dawn into the morning.
“It strengthened again from early dawn until morning,” she said in a written statement on Sunday, December 21, 2025.
Rika explained that the 93S tropical cyclone seed is supported by a low-frequency area, active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) waves in both the northern and southern hemispheres, and warm sea surface temperatures ranging from 28 to 29 degrees Celsius. After a temporary decrease in intensity, the system is now slowly showing signs of strengthening.
BMKG predicts that a category 1 tropical cyclone will begin forming on Sunday evening, December 21, 2025, moving westward away from Indonesian territory. Within the next 48 hours, wind speeds are expected to increase to 60 knots, or 110 kilometers per hour.
“The system is predicted to develop into a category 2 tropical cyclone on Monday evening, December 22, 2025,” Rika added.
Over the following 72 hours, the intense tropical cyclone is expected to maintain category 2 intensity, with sustained wind speeds of 60 knots (110 kilometers per hour). “The potential for the 93S tropical cyclone seed to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 to 72 hours is high,” she said.
Indirect impacts from the cyclone on Indonesia are anticipated to include moderate to heavy rainfall in the Bengkulu, Lampung, Banten, Jakarta, West Java, and Central Java regions. Strong winds are also expected in these areas.
BMKG further predicts that moderate ocean wave heights of 1.25 to 2.5 meters are likely in the waters west of Lampung, the southern part of the Sunda Strait, and the southern waters stretching from Java to West Nusa Tenggara.
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