Bank Indonesia Predicts Inflation to Rise Ahead of Christmas, Ramadan 2025

3 days ago 13

November 13, 2024 | 11:11 pm

TEMPO.CO, JakartaBank Indonesia (BI) predicts that inflationary pressure is expected to increase in the next 3 and 6 months, which are in December 2024 and March 2025. This condition is reflected in the General Price Expectation Index for December 2024 and March 2025 which are recorded at 152.6 and 169.4 respectively.

These figures are higher compared to the previous periods, which were recorded at 134.3 and 155.9. "This increase is in line with the increase in demand during the Christmas and New Year holidays in December 2024 and the Islamic month of Ramadan in March 2025," said the executive director of BI's communications department, Ramdan Denny Prakoso, in a written statement quoted on Wednesday, November 13, 2024.

The central bank also predicted retail sales performance will continue to grow in October 2024. This condition is reflected in the real sales index (IPR) for October 2024, which is projected to reach 209.5, or 1.0 percent annually.

"The performance of retail sales is supported by an increase in sales of cultural and recreational goods, spare parts and accessories, and clothing subgroups," Ramdan said.

He explained that every month, retail sales improved, although it still experienced a contraction of 0.5 percent. The improvement was driven by an increase in sales of apparel sub-groups and household goods, as well as spare parts and accessories.

In September 2024, IPR continued to grow by 4.8 percent annually or 210.6. This condition is lower than in August 2024, which grew by 5.8 percent annually.

"This growth is supported by an increase in sales of fuel and parts and accessories," Ramdan said.

Every month, retail sales in September 2024 contracted by 2.5 percent (mtm), lower than the previous month, which grew by 1.7 percent. Based on the group, the decline occurred mainly in the clothing subgroup, other household equipment group, and food, beverages, and tobacco.

"In line with the decline in public demand after the end of various discount programs in commemoration of the Indonesian Republic Anniversary (HUT RI)," he said.

Editor's Choice: Govt Says Christmas and New Year Holidays Contribute Rp12trn to National Economy

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