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November 20, 2024 | 01:57 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has identified several factors that will influence Indonesia's climate from November 2024 to 2025. One factor contributing to the increased potential for hydrometeorological disasters is the anomalous temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, and Indonesian waters.
The agency’s head Dwikorita Karnawati explained that these temperature anomalies are closely linked to the La Nina phenomenon, which typically leads to increased rainfall in the archipelago. The current weak La Nina conditions are projected to persist until early 2025.
“This causes Indonesian waters to be warmer than average, which subsequently increases the formation of rain clouds,” said Dwikorita on Monday, November 18, 2024.
As a result, most regions of Indonesia are expected to experience high rainfall in 2025. This heightened rainfall will likely increase the frequency of hydrometeorological disasters, such as floods, landslides, and strong winds.
According to BMKG, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomenon is also influencing rainfall patterns. In its annual rainfall projection, BMKG estimates that approximately 67% of Indonesia's territory could receive rainfall exceeding 2,500 millimeters per year, with some areas potentially experiencing rainfall exceeding 5,000 millimeters per year. These regions are primarily concentrated in Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Papua.
Dwikorita further noted that around 15% of Indonesia's regions are likely to experience above-normal rainfall, while only 1% may see below-normal rainfall, particularly in East Nusa Tenggara and West Papua.
She mentioned that the weak La Nina conditions have already begun to impact Indonesia's climate, coinciding with the onset of the rainy season in November 2024. BMKG forecasts that this weak La Nina phase is expected to continue until January, February, and March 2025.
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