November 25, 2025 | 01:54 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Tropical Cyclone Seed 95B has a very high chance of reaching the shores of Sumatra. The low-pressure system, which originated in the waters of the Malacca Strait, east of Aceh, since Friday, November 21, 2025, is already the cause of a major flooding disaster currently affecting Malaysia.
"Data from ECMWF suggests the chance of it reaching Sumatra is 90–100 percent," said Erma Yulihastin, a climate and atmosphere researcher at the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), on Monday, November 24, 2025.
Erma referenced the monitoring of tropical cyclone activities since the storm’s formation by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast.
A professor and climate research expert, Erma explained that it would be a very rare event, occurring perhaps once every 100 to 400 years, if 95B indeed continues to grow into a tropical cyclone and makes landfall in Sumatra.
"If it does make landfall in Sumatra, the impact of its strong winds will be tremendously destructive," she added when speaking to Tempo.
Earlier, Erma revealed that the formation of the cyclone storm seed from the vortex in the narrow waters of the Malacca Strait is intensifying. Cyclone 95B has already triggered extreme rainfall and strong winds in the northern part of Malaysia, including Kuala Lumpur. "This storm also caused stormy rains in Aceh, Medan (North Sumatra), and West Sumatra," she stated via social media on Monday morning.
She explained that the strengthening of Cyclone 95B triggers the formation of a massive Meso-scale Convective Complex (a cluster of rain clouds), leading to persistent rain in the northern and western regions of Sumatra. "Sustained strong winds can also hit Aceh and North Sumatra," she warned.
Cyclone 95B is one of three tropical storms currently developing near Indonesian waters. The other two are Tropical Cyclone Seed 92W, which began forming on November 22 in the northern Pacific Ocean off the coast of Papua, and Tropical Cyclone Fina, which developed from Cyclone Seed 97S that initially formed on November 7 in the waters south of the Tanimbar Islands.
Severe Flooding Hits Malaysia
Quoted from Antara, at least seven out of 13 states in Malaysia have been hit by flood disasters due to the continuously increasing rainfall in recent days. As of Monday morning, the number of affected residents had reached 10,922 people, with Kelantan being the worst-affected state.
In Kelantan, the number of victims has surged to 8,248 people from 3,022 families. Meanwhile, in Penang, 242 individuals from 57 families were recorded as flood victims.
In Perlis, which directly borders Thailand, the number of flood victims has increased to 811 people from 243 families. In Perak, floods have affected four districts, forcing 900 people from 290 families to evacuate.
Additionally, Selangor saw 51 affected victims from 14 families, while the number of affected victims in Kedah and Terengganu reached 388 and 282 people, respectively.
Malaysian authorities are also preparing to anticipate the potential for floods to strike the capital, Kuala Lumpur, similar to the events in 2021. Heavy rainfall has been observed in Kuala Lumpur over the past two to three days, causing the water levels in the Gombak and Klang Rivers to rise.
Editor’s Choice: Malaysia Floods: 11,000 Evacuated as Waters Rise Across Seven States
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