Inside Leeds United's fight for survival: Why the next month is crucial for Daniel Farke, the points-per-game ratio he MUST hit, the mistake they are desperate not to repeat - and the one thing insiders say will buy him time

In April, Daily Mail Sport revealed the shock news that Leeds United’s US-based owners were considering sacking manager Daniel Farke despite the fact he had just guided the sleeping giant back to the Premier League.

The view among some inside Elland Road was that while the former Norwich City boss had an incredible track record in the second tier, his top-flight record was a concern and, with relegation unthinkable financially, making a change would be a wise - if hugely controversial - move.

Farke had led Norwich to the promised land twice. His four full seasons in the Championship saw incredible returns of 94, 97, 90 and 100 points.

It was what tended to happen next that caused concern, with the Canaries finishing bottom in 2020 on 21 points, 14 from safety and then, 16 months later, Farke being shown the door following five points from 11 matches.

In the end they decided to stick with him, with some suggesting that our story and the subsequent fan reaction to it may well have been a factor. But just three months into the season, and despite the fact that Leeds currently sit four points outside the relegation zone, the noise refuses to go away.

Indeed, according to a number of well-placed insiders, the club’s next five fixtures could well determine the German’s future, or whether he has one, in LS11.

On Sunday, fresh from a limp, 3-0 thumping at Brighton, Farke’s men head to an underachieving Nottingham Forest seeking resurgence under Sean Dyche. Then, following the international break, comes a calendar to make West Yorkshire folk wince.

Two home matches against Aston Villa and Chelsea sandwich an away trip to Manchester City before champions Liverpool head across the M62 on December 6.

Key to the thinking of the club's top brass is the points-per-game ratio. How that metric looks after that quartet of tricky fixtures remains to be seen but according to sources, the belief is that a point per game should be enough to keep the club in the Premier League. 

Currently, Leeds have 11 points from 10 matches and so are tracking fractionally above the target, but things can change very quickly. Four defeats from those tough fixtures and would suddenly be off the pace, even if they beat Forest. 

But, as we approach December, the ghost of a Christmas past may also influence thinking. While it played out under the previous regime of Andrea Radrizzani, the Jesse Marsch saga remains fresh in the memory. The American was not shown the door until February 2023, ironically after a defeat at Forest. 

At the time, Leeds had not won in seven. Despite being outside the relegation zone on goal difference at the time, they ended up going down and the view, with hindsight, was that they had acted far too late to save their season. That a new man should have been in place for the January window. At the time, 49ers Enterprises held a 44 per cent stake and so were well aware of the situation. They are known to be keen not to make the same mistake.

So Farke needs results. But there are other issues which may work in his favour. The 49ers people also hold the majority stake in Rangers and recently suffered a bruising process after sacking Russell Martin. After what appeared to be a scalding episode in which they were knocked back by former manager Steven Gerrard, they eventually landed on former Sheffield Wednesday boss Danny Rohl. 

The prospect of having to repeat a similar episode south of the border is not one to relish - although finding a suitable candidate for a Premier League club should not prove as difficult.

Should they decide to head down that route, however, they will be wary of the calibre of applicant. The tribulations at Wolves will not have gone unnoticed. After sacking Vitor Pereira, they first turned to Gary O’Neil, who was sacked from the same parish after 11 defeats before Christmas. When that move fell through, Middlesbrough’s Rob Edwards became the favourite. While the early signs are that Edwards is doing a decent job on Teesside, would a manager of such limited experience be enough to satisfy a demanding fanbase like Leeds'?

While his short-lived stint at Forest did little to improve his reputation, Ange Postecoglou could be a welcome appointment. His down-to-earth demeanour and front-foot football could prove to be a good fit with those in the terraces. Another former Celtic manager, Brendan Rodgers, could get a similar reception, although his spectacular fallout with the Parkhead board may trigger pause for thought.

For Farke, much will depend on a continuation of Leeds’s home form. Eight of his side’s 11 points have come at Elland Road, with Spurs the only side to come away from the city with a victory.

The hostile atmosphere generated by the home support has had an impact and a trip to Leeds, as it always has been, is fraught with difficulty. Indeed, away teams are still situated in an outside marquee, brought in during the Covid period. The walk from the pitch is lengthy, down a series of concourses, and the facility is opposite one of the stadium’s bars. ‘You come in from the cold to the cold,’ joked one official from an opposition club.

Ahead of West Ham's trip north, Nuno Espirito Santo warned his players that they would need to win the physical battles. Within 15 minutes they had been outmuscled twice and had conceded twice in front of a febrile atmosphere. The Hammers managed to pull a goal back but the damage had been done.

Manager and team were given a rousing reception that night and there are some who believe Farke has played the situation magnificently. It has been noticeable this season that he has withdrawn a little, into his trusted circle of loyal lieutenants. While his focus cannot be questioned, it is uncertain whether the same can be said of the club’s transfer policy.

This summer, Leeds spent £105million on 10 new faces and the view is that when it comes to defence and midfield, they are at a Premier League level. It is a different story up front. Dominic Calvert-Lewin, signed on a free following his release by Everton, and £18m AC Milan forward Noah Okafor were the only major arrivals and there are some within the fanbase who believe that the manager has been let down.

A deadline-day move for Fulham’s Harry Wilson that fell through was telling, as was Farke’s later comment that ‘it’s fair to say we are not dancing on the table’. ‘I don’t need to feel sorry for myself,’ he added. Point made.

It is difficult to imagine that those comments did not jar with those in the boardroom who freed up the cash and who are having to negotiate PSR, hamstrung by relegation to the Championship and the constraints on spending that brings.

A recent poll of supporters by the Teamtalk website found that 54.2 per cent felt problems on the road – four losses in five, having scored in only one match - were due to a lack of quality within the squad rather than Farke’s tactics (34.3 per cent) and the opposition being too good (11.5 per cent).

And so, with that backdrop, comes a journey down the M1 to the City Ground and a match Dyche will view as a must-take opportunity for three points. Victory for the hosts would see Forest close the gap to just two points, ahead of those four games.

Farke has etched himself into Leeds’ long history and his achievements cannot be erased. To beat Burnley to the Championship title after the heartbreak of the previous season's play-off final loss required a gargantuan effort, amassing a century of points for the first time. He has ensured that new records have been written. 

However, while getting into the Premier League is one thing, staying there is now all that matters - and the next four weeks could well determine the next chapter in the complicated story of Daniel Farke and Leeds United.

Leeds' next five Premier League fixtures 

Sunday November 9: Nottm Forest (a)  

Sunday November 23: Aston Villa (h)

Saturday November 29: Man City (a)

Wednesday December 3: Chelsea (h) 

Saturday December 6: Liverpool (h)