The Shortcut to Victory in Regional Elections

December 11, 2024 | 06:00 pm

TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Prabowo continued Jokowi’s methods of bringing about victory for favored candidates. This damages state institutions.

There is a shortcut to victory in political contests in this country: support from the highest level of government. This method has proved to be an effective way of defeating rivals who have good records or clear visions and missions and even candidates with strong leads at poll ratings. Mobilization of support from state officials is the key to these victories.

This was proven to be effective in the 2024 presidential election. Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka, with the full support of the then leader, President Joko Widodo, garnered 58 percent of the vote. And exactly the same formula was immediately used for a number of contestants in the simultaneous regional head elections, which took place on November 27.

The results were no less impressive. In North Sulawesi, Yulius Selvanus and Jahannes Victor Mailangkay, the candidate pairing supported by Prabowo Subianto, is predicted to win the gubernatorial election. Yulius, one of Subianto’s subordinates in Special Forces Command from 1997 to 1998, defeated two rivals despite the fact that in polls until September, his percentage share of support was in single digits.

A similar ‘miracle’ occurred in Banten Province, where the Andra Soni-Dimyati Natakusumah pairing, also fully supported by Prabowo, overtook the other candidate pairing of Airin Rachmi Diany-Ade Sumardi despite the fact that a few days before the election, Andra was 40 percent behind Airin in polls. There are indications that support from the leadership in these two provinces took the form of a structured, systematic and large-scale operation. Law enforcement officials, the military, and even bureaucrats and village heads, who should have been neutral, were deployed. Civil servants became instruments of political victory. The 2024 Regional Head Elections were marked by an increase in brazen violations of the principle of neutrality. The same methods were used in other regions.

Without any sense of shame or hesitation, law enforcement officers became instruments of the government used to obtain positions as regional heads. They gathered public support, looked for and distributed campaign materials, and put pressure on rivals and their supporters. In Central Java, there are indications that police officers used the threat of legal cases to put pressure on businesspeople and village heads to support candidates favored by the president. Matters were made worse by the stance of election officials who were often reluctant to take action against the government. For example, the Elections Supervisory Agency stated that Prabowo’s video that openly expressed support for Ahmad Luthfi and Taj Yasin Maimoen in the Central Java gubernatorial election was not a violation.

But support from the leadership was not effective in Jakarta. Ridwan Kamil and Suswono failed to win the election despite being supported by Prabowo and all of the political parties backing him. The candidate pairing from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), Pramono Anung and Rano Karno, garnered 50.07 percent, ensuring that the election in Jakarta will be decided in only one round. However, the government grouping is trying to force a two-round election, hoping that Ridwan-Suswono will be able to win the second round.

Leaving aside the question of whether they succeed or not, it is evident that partisanship by the government has resulted in poor-quality regional elections. Prabowo has chosen to use the same bad tactics as his predecessor in order to strengthen his grip on power. But abuse of power for political competition has led to damage to a number of state institutions.

It is difficult to hope that there will be changes to prevent abuses of power in future political contests. The parties in the House of Representatives are also held hostage by a number of legal cases and simply parrot the wishes of the government. Only popular opposition will be able to end these abuses of power.

Read the Complete Story in Tempo English Magazine

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