January 8, 2026 | 09:59 am
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Entering 2026, Indonesia’s commodity market sits at a critical juncture. Price weakness caused by slowing global demand makes coal, nickel, and crude palm oil (CPO) far less attractive. The government has rolled out interventionist policies, but their effectiveness remains in question.
The World Bank estimates that thermal coal prices fall to around US$95 to US$100 per ton, approaching a new equilibrium, but still far removed from the black-gold boom of 2022.
Pressure comes from the demand side. China and India are ramping up domestic production and renewable energy, shrinking orders for Indonesian coal.
The government seeks to slow the price slide by cutting the national production target from 730 million tons to 700 million tons. But domestic absorption remains limited. Consumption relies mainly on state electricity company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), captive power plants at smelters, and industrial demand totaling only 230 to 240 million tons. That means more than two-thirds of coal output depends on a narrow export market.
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