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Not for the first time in the world of British racing, the numbers don’t add up.
The more dire the situation the deeper heads are buried in the sand by people in positions of power in this paralysed sport.
For all the sweating palms at what Chancellor Rachel Reeves will do with betting duty amid the ‘Axe The Racing Tax’ push, in the Budget on November 26, there are fundamental core problems that British racing really does need to get to grips with.
Tuesday’s Racing Post spelled it out as clear as day.
In an excellent - but admittedly - grim synopsis in the trade paper by former jockey turned equity analyst Richard Killoran, the current model is simply unsustainable.
The foal crop, essentially new horses coming into the world, is projected to decline by 25 per cent in 2026.
Lord Allen has his work cut out to reverse alarming trends as BHA chairman
British racing is battling many problems on multiple front sin a crucial period for the sport
Brant Dunshea was quick to respond to the detailed survey by the Racing Post this week
Betting turnover in the years between 2022-24 has gone down by 17 per cent. The fixture list has gone up by by 60 per cent since the 1990s. There were roughly 4,000 a year and now there is 6,470 - and that number won’t shift until 2027.
Back in the 90s, low class races were worth around £7,600 adjusted for inflation. In 2025, they are now approximately worth a shocking £2,850.
These are incredibly alarming figures. Poor prize money, a declining horse population, too many races and a lack of betting turnover is a recipe for disaster.
How can it be solved? Well, that requires a collective effort from different factions to unite for the sake of the future of the sport.
There must be an acknowledgement from the British Horseracing Authority (BHA) that there is a major problem. The first part of solving any deep-rooted issue is admitting there is one in the first place.
That is something BHA acting chief executive Brant Dunshea admitted to the day after. He told the Racing Post: ‘Much of Mr Killoran’s findings tally with the sport’s own analysis of the various trends and headwinds which we are facing.
‘The sport has been cognisant of this for some time and put in place plans to address them.’
This alludes to the new industry strategy that new BHA chairman Lord Allen wants to implement. The major problem the BHA face is they do not have control of the fixture list and racecourses have commercial entity.
Racing is hoping to stave off the tax threat that is looming large on the industry
That’s little surprise as many racecourses have evolved; plenty were vaccination centres during the pandemic, the majority host events such as wedding fayres and farmer markets to make ends meet. It will be borderline impossible to take some commercial control from how individual courses run their business.
What is worth pressing for is fixture list control. With foal numbers reducing rapidly, it’s little surprise to see field sizes keep declining and make races so unappealing to the customer. And even if punters were enthused to have a bet affordability checks have bitten hard, which dampens enthusiasm for the game even further.
We see it every day. On Friday at Wetherby we had a two-runner beginners chase. We had just three in the novice hurdle despite 30+ initial entries. It’s not exclusively a lack of rain for jumpers problem. The Cesarewitch, a premier Flat handicap at Newmarket, didn’t fill last month. And the marks required to get into races at the Cheltenham Festival get lower each year.
Put simply, there aren’t enough horses in Britain to fill the bloated fixture list. The time for talking, tweaking and skirting around the edges is over. British racing needs to find a way to unite and trim the fixture list to futureproof the sport. Otherwise, the talent drain at the top end to other jurisdictions will continue and the rest will be scrambling for survival.
Regardless of what nasty surprise Reeves produces from the little red box to the gambling industry that will likely damage racing’s finances even further, British racing needs to get its own house in order very quickly. The numbers don’t lie.
TRAGIC DEATH OF TOMMIE JAKES SHOULD ROCK THIS SPORT TO THE CORE
THE sad passing of apprentice jockey Tommie Jakes on Thursday at the young age of 19 must have stopped the vast majority of people in their tracks.
Jakes had been riding for just three years but he was a hard-working apprentice that was used by a wide range of trainers that trusted him.
Tommie Jakes sadly passed away this week at the age of 19
Jockeys at Ascot have a minute's silence and pay their respects to Jakes
That trust was reciprocated on track as he rode 59 winners from 519 rides. Here was a young man learning his trade, travelling all over the country to find opportunities.
None more so than my local track at Ayr. In his three years in the saddle on turf-based racecourses, Jakes rode more times at Ayr (34) than anywhere else in the country. Brighton was second most (25) which demonstrates just how much travelling is involved in the sport.
Jakes rode the day before his death at Nottingham and was scheduled to ride on two occasions the day after at Chelmsford. There was no indication that tragedy was about to strike.
The teenager rode for an astonishing 73 different trainers. He formed bonds with Linda Perratt in Scotland, Alice Haynes, Ismail Mohammed, Michael Attwater, Jane Chapple-Hyam and was at a rising yard in George Boughey at Newmarket. A blind £1 stake on each of Jakes’ mounts across his career would have yielded a net profit of £46.80.
This was a talented young man working ever so hard and going places. His future appeared to be a bright one. But appearances can be deceptive. We don’t know what hidden battles in dark places people are fighting. Rest in peace, Tommie.
Envoi Allen wins his 10th Grade One and his third Champion Chase at Down Royal
PERFORMANCE OF THE WEEK...
What else can be said for the magnificent ENVOI ALLEN. The 11-year-old won his third Champion Chase at Down Royal as he outclassed his rivals in yesterday's Grade One.
Trained by Henry de Bromhead, he jumped brilliantly and has his big prize for the season. He's a grand old horse that epitomises everything we love about National Hunt racing.
