November 7, 2025 | 11:57 pm
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - A study by researchers at Colorado State University has revealed the magnitude of the threat posed by climate change to plantation crops such as coffee, chocolate, and wine. The theory about the impact of rising global temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns on crop yields was derived from research in Western Europe, northern South America, and West Africa.
Citing a report by Earth on Thursday, November 6, 2025, scientists used large climate models and crop suitability metrics to estimate conditions in 2036 and 2045. The study stated that these crops might not survive, even with new ideas to mitigate global warming. The cooling methods currently proposed are not reliable in protecting these plantation crops.
The study, led by Ariel L. Morrison from Colorado State University, focused on climate variability and its risks to agriculture. The research team tested methods of stratospheric aerosol injection, which involve dispersing highly reflective particles in the atmosphere to lower surface temperatures. This strategy has also been evaluated in a report by the National Academies.
Changing rainfall and air humidity due to global warming are predicted to disrupt agricultural stability. While temperatures may decrease due to solar cooling, the water risk can still fluctuate drastically across seasons and regions.
The researchers also warned that solar cooling redistributes heat and humidity rather than targeting specific agricultural needs. They used climate simulations for 18 major production regions and assessed annual suitability using an agroclimatic index. There are also simple metrics that can track temperature, rainfall, and disease pressure. Two cooling targets were compared with a future without intervention.
Overall, only six out of eighteen regions consistently showed cooling, while the rest showed minor changes or varied results. Lower temperatures helped reduce heat stress in some vineyards. However, vineyards also require a definite winter rest period. This means that excessively warm temperatures can accelerate flowering and increase the risk of frost.
A viticulture review noted that warmer springs cause earlier bud break, increasing exposure to damaging frost. This dynamic explains why a warmer world can still experience detrimental winter events in spring.
Farmers Need to Adapt
One way to mitigate this risk is to adapt to the situation. Farmers can switch varieties, change canopy layouts, improve drainage, adjust harvest times, and invest in shade and wind protection. The choices for adaptation vary depending on the crop and location.
Some risks are easier to manage than others. If water is available, irrigation can address drought. Water storage on farms is helpful, and some tools can prevent heavy, week-long rains that trigger diseases. In short, climate change not only alters weather but also changes the geography and sustainability of luxury food and crops worldwide.
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