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TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) reported that Indonesia is currently surrounded by two active tropical cyclone seeds that have the potential to have a significant impact on the weather in various regions. BMKG Head Dwikorita Karnawati emphasized the importance of being aware of the potential for extreme weather due to complex atmospheric dynamics.
Based on the latest BMKG analysis as of February 2, 2025, two active tropical cyclone seeds were identified around the southern region of Indonesia, namely cyclone seed 99S growing in the Indian Ocean south of Banten and cyclone seed 90S growing in the south of West Nusa Tenggara (NTB).
Meanwhile, cyclone seed 96P which previously formed around the Gulf of Carpentaria has now disintegrated into a low pressure circulation and has entered the Australian continent, but still contributes to forming weather patterns in the Indonesian region.
Although the two active cyclones in southern Indonesia (99S and 90S) are predicted to move southwestward further away from Indonesian territory, their indirect impacts are still felt in the form of increased rainfall, strong winds, and high waves in several areas.
"The presence of two active tropical cyclones and one disintegrated cyclone has significantly increased the dynamics of the atmosphere during the current peak rainy season. The combination of cyclones, weak La Niña phenomena, the Asian Monsoon, Cold Air Inrush from the Siberian plateau, and atmospheric wave activity, as well as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) will increase the risk of extreme weather in many parts of Indonesia," said Dwikorita Karnawati via written message, February 3, 2025.
In the past week, said Dwikorita, various regions in Indonesia have experienced very heavy to extreme rain. Some of the highest rainfall records include East Kalimantan with 229 mm/day and Central Sulawesi 192 mm/day on January 26, Riau Islands 154 millimeters/day on January 27, and Jabodetabek which recorded rainfall of up to 264 millimeters/day on January 28.
In other regions, NTT recorded 105 millimeters/day of rainfall, East Java 137.8 millimeters/day, Central Java 110.7 millimeters/day, and South Sulawesi 106.2 millimeters/day on January 29, then in West Papua it was measured at 112 millimeters/day on January 31, 2025.
For the next week starting February 2, 2025, according to Dwikorita, several areas need to be on alert. According to him, the potential for moderate to heavy rain can even increase to very heavy or extreme, namely covering the areas of Papua, Papua Mountains, South Papua, East Nusa Tenggara, West Nusa Tenggara, Yogyakarta, East Java, Central Java, East Kalimantan, North Kalimantan, North Maluku, West Java, Jambi, West Papua and Southwest Papua.
In addition to extreme rain, BMKG Deputy for Meteorology Guswanto also warned of the potential for high waves due to the influence of tropical cyclone seeds. Waves with a height of 2.5 - 4.0 meters are predicted to occur in several Indonesian waters, including the Indian Ocean west of Bengkulu to Lampung, the Indian Ocean south of Banten to NTT, the Sawu Sea, the waters of Kupang - Rote Island, the Maluku Sea, the Halmahera Sea, the northern waters of Southwest Papua to Papua, and the Pacific Ocean north of Halmahera to Papua.
Therefore, he added, BMKG asked the public and local governments to increase preparedness to face potential hydrometeorological disasters, such as floods, flash floods, landslides, and strong winds. People in landslide-prone areas are advised to be more vigilant, especially when heavy rain occurs.
Activities in steep slope areas should be avoided, and early signs of landslides such as cracks in the ground or water seepage should be taken seriously. In addition, drainage conditions need to be checked regularly to ensure that the water channel system is functioning optimally, in order to reduce the risk of puddles and flooding.
BMKG also asked the public to comply with early warnings regarding extreme weather, especially for fishermen and sea transportation operators who are at risk of being affected by high waves. "We appeal to all parties, both the community, local governments, and related agencies to increase preparedness. Do not underestimate the potential impact of these three cyclone seeds. Be alert, vigilant, and always monitor official information from BMKG to reduce the risk of hydrometeorological disasters that may occur," said Guswanto.
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